TL;DR
- The U.S. manufacturing PMI expansion signals increased risk appetite among investors.
- A golden cross on the IFP indicator suggests a shift in market sentiment.
- Five consecutive monthly red candles historically precede strong Bitcoin recoveries.
Bitcoin has recorded five consecutive monthly red candles, a streak with only one precedent in its history. In this context, analysts combine macroeconomic readings with blockchain-specific indicators to project a possible trend change. The core debate centers on whether the market has already exhausted selling pressure or still requires an additional correction.
The U.S. manufacturing sector provides the first signal. The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI registered 52.4% in February, its second month above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The reading exceeded analyst expectations of 51.8%. The data gains relevance because it breaks a three-year contraction streak in the industry.
When the PMI expands, investors tend to increase their exposure to higher-risk assets. Analyst Joe Consorti noted that in previous cycles this index showed correlation with Bitcoin’s highs. According to his reading, the current scenario replicates conditions that preceded bull markets, with the exception of the 2022 bear cycle.
ISM Manufacturing PMI came in higher than expected today. In expansion for the second month in a row.
After 3 years of contraction, U.S. manufacturing is back in expansion.
Historically, this has lined up with the early start of BTC bull markets (excluding 2022). pic.twitter.com/7YPeIScB2L
— Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) March 2, 2026
Flow Between Exchanges Anticipates Sentiment
A second indicator reinforces the recovery thesis. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which measures Bitcoin movement between spot and derivatives exchanges, is approaching a golden cross formation. The tool, developed by CryptoQuant, reflects trader behavior.
When Bitcoins flow toward derivatives platforms, the indicator points to a bullish phase. Traders move their holdings to open long positions. Conversely, when coins return to spot exchanges, the market typically enters bearish territory. This movement occurs when investors close their bets and large holders reduce exposure. The possible activation of a golden cross in the IFP would indicate a shift in sentiment direction.
The third factor rests on monthly statistics
Bitcoin closed February with its fifth consecutive red candle. The only previous occurrence happened between 2018 and 2019, when the asset strung together six months of declines. After that streak, the price responded with five successive green candles and a rally exceeding 300%, from $3,400 to $14,000.
Analyst Satoshi Flipper argues that the exact number of red candles loses relevance at this point. The deepest part of the decline is already behind and the upside potential remains intact. History suggests that a prolonged streak of declines exhausts selling pressure. When demand returns, the market can turn sharply.
March’s direction will depend on the price’s ability to hold support at $62,300 or break resistance at $79,000. The combination of macro signals and on-chain data provides arguments for a recovery scenario, but the market still requires confirmation through volume and buying conviction.
