TL;DR:
- Eight wallets suspected of insider trading accumulated over $1.2 million betting on Polymarket about ZachXBT’s investigation into Axiom.
- Onchain investigator Defioasis identified that three addresses each obtained profits exceeding $100,000 by trading exclusively in that market.
- Axiom confirmed it removed access to the tools used in the alleged insider trading case following the publication of the investigation.
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket may have been used in an insider trading case after a small group of suspected wallets accumulated over $1.2 million betting on the outcome of an investigation by onchain analyst ZachXBT against DeFi platform Axiom.
Onchain investigator known as Defioasis pointed out that eight of the ten most benefited wallets likely correspond to addresses with privileged information, based on their onchain transaction patterns. In a Friday post on X, the investigator noted that three of those addresses achieved profits exceeding $100,000 each and that all of them operated exclusively in that market, reinforcing suspicions that these wallets had access to some type of information.
The Bets Arrived Before the News
ZachXBT published the investigation on Thursday, alleging that Broox Bauer, an Axiom employee, and others had carried out insider trading activities since early 2025. Following the disclosure, Axiom said it was “surprised and disappointed” and announced that it removed access to the tools involved in the alleged scheme.
This episode recalls the case of a wallet on Polymarket that placed a bet on the removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro just hours before U.S. forces captured him in a military operation, generating a profit of around $400,000. Since then, U.S. lawmakers have pushed forward bills to restrict the use of political prediction markets by government officials.
Polymarket Under Scrutiny
Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, is facing intense regulatory pressure in several countries that have begun classifying its operations as unauthorized gambling. Hungary and Portugal blocked access to the platform in January for that reason. A week earlier, Ukraine had applied the same measure. France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore and Switzerland have also restricted or blocked access at various points.
