TL;DR
- Bitcoin closed 2025 well below expectations, trading at $87,000 on December 31, far from the forecasts of billionaires and analysts.
- The highs of 2025 were short-lived: BTC surpassed $102,000 in January, dropped to lows near $76,000 in April, and reached $126,000 in October before a flash crash wiped out gains.
- Looking ahead to 2026, the focus is on the macroeconomic context: Cathie Wood anticipates a “Goldilocks” year with low inflation and accelerated growth.
The Bitcoin market ended 2025 far below expectations. On December 31, BTC traded around $87,000, well below the projections of key market figures.
Robert Kiyosaki and Tom Lee had predicted $250,000, Chamath Palihapitiya $500,000, Tim Draper $250,000, Eric Trump $175,000, and Michael Saylor $150,000. None of these scenarios materialized, leaving a clear gap between forecasts and actual performance.
Bitcoin started 2025 breaking records, exceeding $102,000 in January, driven by the political and economic context surrounding Donald Trump’s inauguration. However, that surge could not be sustained: by February it fell to $80,000 and touched lows near $76,000 in April.
The second half of the year brought a period of recovery, peaking at $126,000 in early October. That high was short-lived: a flash crash on October 10 erased accumulated gains and left the market trading sideways between $86,000 and $94,000 during the final quarter. The year-end close exposed a market unable to sustain bullish trends, even against the most conservative forecasts.
New Forecasts and What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin
Looking toward 2026, analysts are focusing on the macroeconomic environment. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, believes markets may underestimate the potential for a “Goldilocks” year, with accelerated growth and falling inflation. According to Wood, if oil and rent prices continue to decline, inflation could fall to zero or even turn negative—a scenario historically favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin following prolonged tightening cycles.
Projections for 2026 and beyond remain divided. Bernstein maintains a $200,000 target for 2027, while Standard Chartered cut its 2026 forecast from $300,000 to $150,000, citing weaker spot demand. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse projects $180,000, based on institutional adoption, clearer regulations, and the arrival of major traditional asset managers into the Bitcoin ETF market.
Confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term thesis remains strong. Despite volatility, price cycles, and pullbacks, institutional investors and macro strategists see 2026 as a year that could reignite demand and lay the foundation for a new bullish cycle in the market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades above $89,700, up 1.9% in the past 24 hours. Its volume has surged over 100%, approaching $43 billion
