TL;DR
- Jurien Timmer from Fidelity warns that Bitcoin could face a crypto winter in 2026, with declines potentially reaching between $13,000 and $23,000.
- The historical four-year cycle pattern linked to halvings suggests a new adjustment period following the $125,000 peak, although some experts believe it may no longer apply.
- Increasing institutional participation and new financial products could alter BTC dynamics, forcing investors to prepare new strategies.
Bitcoin could face a challenging year in 2026. Jurien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, warns that the historical four-year cycle could repeat, following the latest peak of $125,000 reached in October.
This cycle, tied to BTC halvings, has historically shown periods of sharp price increases followed by prolonged crypto winters with declines lasting roughly a year.
While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025
Timmer believes Bitcoin’s recent behavior shows clear similarities with previous cycles. According to his analysis, the latest peak aligns with the temporal structure of prior highs. Based on historical experience, he suggests that after these peaks, a prolonged adjustment period occurs, with significant corrections for BTC and the broader market. For 2026, he estimates Bitcoin could fall to support levels between $65,000 and $75,000, with declines potentially dropping to $13,000–$23,000 during a hypothetical crypto winter.
The executive warns that, while he remains fundamentally optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential, it is necessary to prepare for a consolidation phase.
Has Halving’s Influence on Bitcoin Price Ended?
Not everyone shares this view. Experts such as Cathie Wood from Ark Invest and Michael Saylor from Strategy argue that the four-year cycle is no longer relevant. They note that the entry of institutional investors, Wall Street participation, and the evolving political and regulatory framework have changed market dynamics. According to them, future crypto winters may not recur, and BTC could experience cycles that are less dependent on historical patterns.
Past experience provides reference points, but growing institutionalization and the expansion of Bitcoin-linked financial products introduce new variables. Investors should consider both scenarios: a deep adjustment in 2026 replicating previous cycles, or a year in which the market behaves differently, with reduced reliance on historical patterns.
In any case, the entire industry is closely monitoring Bitcoin’s changes. Careful investment analysis and risk assessment will be crucial in the coming months as the market processes information on historical cycles, institutional participation, and potential corrections
