TL;DR
- Coinbase premium has been negative for seven days, around -0.04%, and most of November, implying US spot demand is lagging as institutions buy less aggressively as risk appetite softens.
- Year-end rebalancing, profit-taking, and tax-loss harvesting are cited, with December seasonality typical but unusually large.
- Asia is described as buying dips, echoing 2019, March 2020, and late 2022 when Western selling was followed by Asian accumulation after US Sunday liquidation drops.
Traders watching Bitcoin flows are seeing a regional split, and the clearest tell is the Coinbase premium. Data cited from Coinglass shows the premium has stayed negative for seven days, around -0.04%, and was negative for almost all of November. The metric tracks the price difference between assets on Coinbase and alternatives used heavily in Asia, such as Binance. When the Coinbase premium stays below zero, analysts read it as US spot demand lagging the broader market. Analyst Kyledoops framed it as less aggressive institutional buying, softer risk appetite, and cautious capital, not outright panic.
The Coinbase $BTC premium has stayed negative for 7 straight days, now around -0.04% per Coinglass.
That usually signals U.S. spot demand is lagging the rest of the market.
Less aggressive institutional buying, softer risk appetite, and capital staying cautious.
Not panic, but… pic.twitter.com/HtjNSorO1I
— Kyledoops (@kyledoops) December 21, 2025
Liquidity Trends in U.S. vs. Asian Crypto Markets
The premium is treated as a sentiment indicator for regional demand. When it is positive, it suggests stronger buying pressure from US investors, often linked to institutional activity because Coinbase is heavily used by American institutions. A negative reading, by contrast, usually points to American investors selling or simply stepping back, and it can also imply institutional hesitation on the sidelines. The report adds that year-end dynamics matter: institutions rebalance portfolios, take profits, and pursue tax-loss harvesting as the fiscal year closes. December seasonality is typical, but the magnitude this time notably appears more pronounced.
While US sentiment cools, the same data narrative points east. The report says the opposite appears to be happening in Asia, with more buying pressure during Asian sessions. One analyst, No Limit, argued that the US and the EU are selling Bitcoin aggressively, while Asia is buying, and they shared a chart to illustrate the gap. In that view, Asian traders are treating intraday dips as opportunities, repeatedly accumulating when prices soften. The contrast implies liquidity rotation: risk is being reduced in the West as bids show up more consistently in Asian hours right now.
The divergence also has a precedent. The report notes similar West-sells, Asia-accumulates setups in 2019, in March 2020, and in late 2022. In those prior cycles, Western selling was followed by Asian accumulation, and prices eventually moved higher in the direction of Asia’s demand. More recently, it adds that frequent liquidation events over the past couple of weeks have triggered late-session dumps in the US on Sunday, followed by accumulation in Asia on Monday morning. That rhythm is a familiar pattern repeating, even as timing and catalysts vary. Markets often eventually follow that quieter bid.
