TL;DR:
- Cantor slashes Strategy’s 12‑month target by 60 % but maintains a buy rating, saying liquidation fears are overblown.
- The firm notes Strategy has enough cash to support dividends and access to capital if needed, reducing risk of forced asset sales.
- Despite headwinds, Cantor remains optimistic on Bitcoin’s long‑term upside — viewing current weakness as consolidation, not collapse.
Cantor Fitzgerald stunned markets this week by slashing its 12‑month price target for Strategy from $560 to $229 — a 60 % cut — yet it kept a “buy” rating intact. The revision signals caution on near‑term conditions without abandoning long‑term conviction, as the firm pushed back against growing fears of forced Bitcoin liquidations tied to recent volatility.
Why Cantor Thinks Strategy Is Safe — Despite the Cut
Cantor emphasized that Strategy retains the financial flexibility to withstand extended market stress. The company’s cash reserves alone can fund dividend obligations for roughly 21 months, according to the firm’s analysis. Beyond liquidity, Strategy also maintains access to multiple capital‑raising channels that further reduce the risk of emergency asset sales if conditions tighten.
Fears surrounding Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings drew particular attention following the target reduction. Cantor argues that liquidation concerns only become relevant under extreme drawdowns approaching 90 %, which the firm views as unlikely under current market structure. Instead, analysts framed the recent pullback as part of a broader consolidation cycle rather than evidence of a structural breakdown in Bitcoin’s long‑term thesis.
The price‑target slash also reflects headwinds unrelated to Bitcoin price action alone. Cantor pointed to potential index‑tracking pressures tied to crypto‑heavy balance sheets, warning that equity selling could emerge if major benchmarks adjust exposure criteria. Importantly, the firm classified this as a mechanical flow issue capable of creating temporary valuation pressure rather than a fundamental threat to Strategy’s business model.
Despite the more conservative target, optimism toward crypto’s long‑term trajectory remains intact. Cantor reiterated its view that Bitcoin still holds the potential to challenge gold’s market capitalization over time, reinforcing Strategy’s role as a publicly traded proxy for that exposure. From this perspective, current price weakness is framed as positioning noise rather than a reset of the macro thesis.
For investors, the updated outlook delivers a mixed message. The target cut tempers expectations in the short run, but confidence in Strategy’s balance‑sheet resilience remains firm, according to Cantor. If liquidity conditions stabilize and crypto sentiment improves, the firm sees room for patient holders to benefit from Strategy’s Bitcoin‑centric positioning without facing near‑term forced‑sale risks.
