Wintermute stated that Bitcoin continues to track U.S. equities closely, but with a persistent negative performance skew that has intensified through 2025. The firm shared the assessment in a market update published this morning, noting that BTC reacts more sharply to Nasdaq-100 declines than to periods of equity strength.
According to Wintermute, the BTC–Nasdaq correlation remains elevated, yet the asset “absorbs the pain, not the optimism,” a pattern typically associated with late-stage bear-market behavior. Analysts add that reduced crypto liquidity and a rotation of investor attention toward tech equities have reinforced this asymmetry, even as Bitcoin trades near its historical highs.
The firm expects this skew to narrow as liquidity conditions improve, pointing to rising ETF volumes and a stabilizing derivatives market as indicators to watch. Wintermute will release a follow-up report next week with updated cross-asset volatility metrics.
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