TL;DR
- Certainty: Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas now places the odds of Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETF approvals at a full 100%, citing the SEC’s adoption of generic listing standards that override the old 19b-4 process.
- Process Shift: With deadlines eliminated, only S-1 filings remain under review, meaning the SEC can issue approvals at any moment, accelerating the timeline for multiple crypto ETF launches.
- Fast-Track: The SEC’s accelerated standards cut review periods from 240 to as few as 75 days, opening the door to potentially more than 100 new crypto ETFs within the next year.
The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of new spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. is now considered inevitable after the agency’s adoption of generic listing standards rendered the traditional 19b-4 deadline process irrelevant, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas.
Honestly the odds are really 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their “clock” meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready. https://t.co/5JtfTm82Wi
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 29, 2025
Balchunas Raises Odds to 100%
Balchunas, who had previously placed the likelihood of approval for Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs at 90% to 95%, declared on X that the odds are now “really 100%.” He explained that generic listing standards eliminate the significance of 19b-4 filings and their associated timelines, leaving only the S-1 registration statements awaiting a formal green light from the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance. He noted that Solana’s application had just submitted its fourth amendment, signaling imminent approval.
SEC Deadlines Rendered Moot
The SEC had originally set deadlines of Oct. 2, Oct. 10, and Oct. 17 for potential approval of Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs. However, under the new framework, the agency can approve or deny applications at any time. Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart had already raised approval odds for these products in June, alongside crypto index ETFs, while also assigning 90% chances to Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche ETFs.
From 19b-4 Filings to Generic Standards
Previously, the 19b-4 process required exchanges such as Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX to file on behalf of issuers, triggering a formal review clock once acknowledged by the SEC. The S-1 registration, by contrast, carried no deadlines. Following the SEC’s approval of generic listing standards, numerous 19b-4 filings for Solana, XRP, Cardano, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Polkadot, and Hedera ETFs were withdrawn, as were filings for Ethereum staking ETFs.
Fast-Track for Crypto ETFs
The SEC approved the new standards on an accelerated basis earlier this month, citing “good cause” to act quickly. The change reduces review timelines for new ETF submissions from 240 days to as little as 75. Exchanges can now list crypto funds that meet the standards without filing new 19b-4 forms, provided the underlying asset has a futures contract listed on a designated contract market for at least six months.
Coinbase Derivatives, which lists futures for assets including Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and others, qualifies under this rule. Balchunas highlighted that when similar standards were applied to stock and bond ETFs, launches tripled, suggesting more than 100 crypto ETFs could debut within the next year.
