TL;DR
- Short Selling Trend: HODL15Capital’s data shows a trend of short selling in the Bitcoin market, potentially leading to liquidations worth around $1 billion between the $52,400 and $53,000 price range.
- Bitcoin Derivatives Accumulation: Analytics indicate a growing accumulation of Bitcoin derivatives. The increase in open interest could intensify Bitcoin’s volatility in the near term, especially if these positions are leveraged.
- High Accumulation Ahead of Halving Event: In the last 30 days, Bitcoin cohorts have shown significant accumulation, reaching a peak last observed in October 2023. An expected halving event in April is set to reduce the monthly distribution of Bitcoin to 13,500 BTC per month.
HODL15Capital’s recent data indicates a trend of short selling in the Bitcoin market. This trend, coupled with leveraged positions, could potentially lead to liquidations worth around $1 billion between the $52,400 and $53,000 price range. As Bitcoin’s price stabilizes around $52,000, the Binance BTC/USDT pair shows a significant amount of leverage above this level, as indicated by the Coinglass Liquidation Heatmap.
The shorts have piled in w/ leverage. Approx. $1 billion of liquidations (yellow lines) between $52,400 and $53,000 👇 pic.twitter.com/sGaYh2OuHG
— HODL15Capital 🇺🇸 (@HODL15Capital) February 19, 2024
Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price has remained above $50,000, despite experiencing some volatility. A significant increase in liquidations was observed between February 12 and 14, which coincided with Bitcoin’s rise above the $50,000 mark. This suggests that leveraged short positions are at risk of liquidation during market increases.
Additionally, analytics from last week indicate a growing accumulation of Bitcoin derivatives. The gradual increase in open interest could potentially intensify Bitcoin’s volatility in the near term, especially if these positions are leveraged. Therefore, the combination of high leverage and the accumulation of derivatives could significantly influence market trends and potentially induce further volatility.
Bitcoin Cohorts Show High Accumulation Ahead of Halving Event
In related news, in the last 30 days, Bitcoin cohorts have demonstrated significant accumulation, reaching a peak last observed in October 2023, with a total monthly balance change of 111,000 BTC. This is the highest level of Bitcoin accumulation seen since the significant surge when Bitcoin’s value rose from $25,000 to $40,000.
The current monthly distribution of Bitcoin is 27,000. However, an expected halving event in April is set to reduce this distribution to 13,500 BTC per month. Notably, Bitcoin accumulation across all cohorts is outpacing issuance by more than four times.
Examining specific cohort behavior, ‘Whales,’ or entities holding between 1k-10k Bitcoins, are leading the accumulation race with approximately 236,000 BTC accumulated over 30 days. In contrast, ‘Super Whales,’ or those holding 10k Bitcoin or more, have been observed to distribute about 50k Bitcoin in the past month.
At the same time, crypto exchanges have experienced a net outflow of approximately 50k Bitcoin over the past 30 days. Among the smaller cohorts, ‘Shrimps,’ or those holding less than 1 Bitcoin, have accumulated 13k Bitcoin, while ‘Crabs’ and ‘Fish’ have shown light distribution over the past 30 days.
