TL;DR
- On-chain gross data shows long-term holders moved close to 370,000 BTC in one month, far more than net metrics indicate.
- The gap emerges because net indicators offset spending with coins maturing into long-term status.
- This activity took place during heightened volatility and points to capital rotation rather than a structural exit from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is once again challenging conventional on-chain interpretations. Recent long-term holder behavior suggests that the actual volume of BTC in motion has been significantly larger than what widely followed net metrics imply, reshaping how current market dynamics are assessed.
The key nuance often missed is that LTH Net Position Change reflects a net balance, not total selling.
It equals new coins maturing into LTH status (from STH) minus coins spent by LTHs over the period.Over the last 30 days:
ā¢ š“Total LTH spending: ~370K BTC
ā¢ š¢STH ā LTHā¦ pic.twitter.com/61UGQKkijD— glassnode (@glassnode) January 29, 2026
How Long-Term Holder Spending Defies Network Metrics
Over the past four weeks, aggregate spending by long-term holders exceeded 370,000 BTC, according to gross on-chain flow data. This figure stands in contrast to the roughly 144,000 BTC net decline often cited using the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric. The difference does not reflect a data inconsistency, but rather a structural feature of how net metrics are calculated.
Net position indicators balance two simultaneous forces. On one side, existing long-term holders spend coins. On the other, previously short-term held coins mature and are reclassified as long-term holdings. Glassnode estimates show that while about 370,000 BTC were spent by long-term holders, roughly 226,000 BTC transitioned into long-term holder status. The result is a much smaller net decline that can mask the true scale of on-chain activity.
When coin maturation accelerates, net metrics tend to understate distribution. Gross flow analysis captures actual movement across the network and provides a clearer picture of holder behavior during volatile phases.
Market Volatility And On-Chain Context
This elevated spending occurred alongside renewed market stress. Bitcoin briefly fell toward the $81,000 level, marking its lowest price since November, as broader financial markets experienced sharp intraday declines. While equities and commodities stabilized, digital assets lagged, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions and reduced risk appetite.
Sentiment indicators mirrored this shift. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped into extreme fear territory, signaling heightened caution among traders. Additional on-chain data showed the 90-day simple moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falling from levels near 19 in mid-2025 to around 1.7, indicating reduced profit-taking and pressure on short-term demand.
Rather than pointing to a loss of conviction, the movement of 370,000 BTC by long-term holders highlights active capital rotation within Bitcoin. Combining gross and net metrics offers a more accurate view of market structure and supports the case that network activity remains resilient, even during periods of price compression and elevated uncertainty.
