TL;DR
- XRP holders are facing the deepest unrealized losses in the token’s 12-year history, according to Santiment’s MVRV data.
- Despite the bearish pressure, some analysts believe the current setup offers an attractive long-term accumulation zone as downside risk weakens.
- At the same time, technical indicators such as the SuperTrend signal hint at a possible rebound, although XRP still trades below key resistance levels that continue to define the broader market trend.
XRP is trading at one of the most difficult stages in its market history as investor losses reach extreme levels rarely seen across major cryptocurrencies. Data from Santiment shows the 30-day MVRV ratio falling to -45%, while the 365-day MVRV sits near -47%. The combined reading marks the weakest position for XRP holders since the asset launched more than 12 years ago.
✍️ TL;DR: XRP Ledger average returns historically low, implying relief rally is probable
📊 Metrics Used: 30-Day & 365-Day MVRV
🔗 Link to chart: https://t.co/z3mjkJzILe📉 XRP’s average trading returns are sitting at historic pain levels. Its 30-day MVRV is -45% and its… pic.twitter.com/Q5vmHrJ0Sc
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 2, 2026
The sharp decline reflects how both short-term traders and long-term investors remain underwater at the same time. Historically, similar market conditions have often appeared near accumulation phases, especially when fear dominates sentiment and retail participation slows down.
XRP Technical Signals Draw Attention From Traders
Despite the broader weakness, several analysts continue to monitor bullish signals emerging from XRP’s technical structure. Market analyst Ali Martinez recently pointed to a fresh SuperTrend buy signal, the first positive reversal indication since mid-June. Previous signals from the same indicator correctly anticipated double-digit price moves in recent months.
XRP currently trades near $1.09 after gaining more than 3% during the last 24 hours. Daily trading volume remains above $1.8 billion, showing that market activity continues even during periods of elevated losses. Some traders interpret this combination of high volume and negative sentiment as evidence that larger investors may already be accumulating positions quietly.
Institutional interest around crypto investment products also continues supporting long-term optimism across the sector. Spot crypto ETFs in the United States maintain steady inflows, helping strengthen confidence in digital assets despite ongoing volatility.
Market Structure Still Keeps Pressure On XRP
Even with improving technical signals, bearish analysts argue that XRP still faces important structural resistance levels. The asset remains below its 20-week EMA near $1.35, a level many traders consider essential for confirming a stronger trend reversal.
Past XRP cycles show that losing this support zone often leads to extended consolidation phases before a sustainable recovery begins. Some analysts also compare the current setup to the correction seen earlier this year, when temporary rebounds failed to shift the broader trend.
