TL;DR
- VanEck projects that Bitcoin could reach $644,000 per unit following the 2024 halving, capturing half of gold’s market value.
- The firm estimates that if BTC participates in 10% of international payments and 5% of domestic transactions, central banks could hold 2.5% of their assets in BTC.
- Under this scenario, BTC would reach a base valuation of $2.9 million per unit, with a total market capitalization exceeding $61 trillion.
VanEck projects that Bitcoin could reach $644,000 per unit after the 2024 halving, based on the idea that it could capture half of gold’s market capitalization.
According to Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at the firm, roughly half of gold’s value comes from its role as a store of value, a function that an increasing number of younger investors are attributing to BTC. “We’ve said that Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving,” Sigel noted, adding that at gold’s record price, this would equate to $644,000 per BTC.
In its long-term analysis, VanEck suggests that Bitcoin could become a global-scale reserve asset and medium of exchange by 2050. The firm envisions a scenario where BTC accounts for 10% of international payments and 5% of domestic transactions.
Bitcoin: A System Created by the People, for the People
Under these assumptions, central banks could hold 2.5% of their assets in BTC, resulting in a base valuation of $2.9 million per Bitcoin and a total market cap above $61 trillion. VanEck emphasizes that Bitcoin’s design as a trustless, immutable, and neutral system makes it a superior alternative to fiat currencies, which remain vulnerable to inflation and political interference. The report describes BTC as “a system created by the people, for the people,” applying constraints equivalent to a constitutional framework over money.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $111,000. Technical indicators show a positive MACD and an RSI near 64, suggesting moderately overbought conditions. Analysts identify resistance at $122,000 and support at $117,000. While recent ETF outflows and macroeconomic factors have caused temporary consolidation, institutional interest continues to support long-term optimism.
VanEck views Bitcoin as an asset that combines growth potential with structural monetary functions. BTC’s evolution depends not only on its immediate price but also on its gradual integration into payment systems, reserves, and long-term strategies, cementing its role as a central component of the future financial system
