TL;DR
- Bitcoin faces pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 interest-rate decision.
- Traders weigh three scenarios: a base-case cut, a dovish surprise, or a hawkish setback.
- Despite a 30% drop, major banks maintain long-term Bitcoin price targets above $200,000.
Traders in Bitcoin (BTC) now track the clock. On Wednesday, December 10, the Federal Reserve delivers the final interest-rate decision of 2025, and BTC enters the meeting under pressure. The coin trades near $91,500, after a drawdown of almost 30% from the $126,000 peak in October, and the market questions whether six-figure prices return before year-end.
Positioning across rates markets points toward easier policy. The CME FedWatch tool assigns roughly 87% odds to a 25 basis point cut. On-chain prediction platform Polymarket shows an implied probability close to 93% for looser conditions. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on December 9 and 10, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks to investors at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Sentiment around Bitcoin looks very different from the euphoria that carried the asset above $100,000 in October. The Fear and Greed Index now sits at 23 out of 100, which reflects deep caution. Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of about $194.64 million on Thursday, including roughly $112.96 million from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). During the early December sell-off, nearly $1 billion in leveraged long positions vanished in liquidations.
Analysts in crypto and macro desks now frame three main scenarios for Wednesday’s announcement and the press conference that follows, each with different implications for BTC.
Base case: quarter-point cut and a mild relief rally
Under the central scenario, the Fed delivers the expected 25 bps reduction and outlines a path with around three additional cuts into 2026. Powell acknowledges softer price pressures but still stresses vigilance on inflation. Rates traders already price most of that outcome, so Bitcoin might stage only a modest recovery.
In that case, BTC may grind higher, yet buying power likely falls short of a quick return to the $100,000 area. ETF flows, global risk appetite and balance-sheet data from large holders would still need to improve before buyers regain full control.
Dovish surprise: extra fuel for Bitcoin bulls
A more accommodative message would change the tone. Deeper cuts in the new projections, or language that clearly places growth ahead of inflation concerns, could push investors toward risk assets.
Tom Lee from Fundstrat keeps a $150,000 target for Bitcoin and links that call to broader liquidity in 2026. Prior bull runs gained traction when central banks expanded balance sheets and lowered real yields. A similar pattern now would support the idea of renewed upside in BTC as yield assets lose appeal.
Under that setup, ETF inflows, credit conditions and weaker real rates could pull fresh capital toward crypto markets. Price projections remain speculative, yet traders who follow macro liquidity signals already prepare playbooks for a more supportive Fed.
Hawkish tone: deeper drawdown and forced deleveraging risk
A restrictive signal from the Fed would hit crypto sentiment much harder. Fewer projected cuts, or emphasis on stubborn inflation, could trigger aggressive selling in Bitcoin and send price action toward $70,000–$80,000 support zones.
Derivatives markets magnify that danger. Certain exchanges currently offer 200x leverage, and open interest in perpetual futures stands near $787 billion. A sharp drop below key levels can force liquidations across highly geared positions and speed up losses far beyond spot flows alone. Under those conditions, support bands turn into stress points where the market tests how much leverage can survive.
Thin December liquidity and technical stress around key levels
Seasonal patterns add another layer. Trading desks often operate with smaller teams and reduced size in December. Technical analysts expect Bitcoin to trade in a band between $85,000 and $95,000 if no clear trigger appears. With shallow order books, any block of selling or buying can cause outsized moves.
Charts also show a notable break in a long-term gauge. BTC recently fell below its 10-month moving average for the first time in almost four years, a signal that worries many trend followers. Price behaviour around that line after the Fed decision will help determine whether the break turns into a deeper downtrend or a short-lived deviation.
Long-term targets stay high despite a sharp pullback
Even after a slide of around 30% from the October peak, some banks maintain very optimistic forecasts. Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin at $200,000 by early 2026. Bernstein outlines a similar range, anchored in steady growth of BTC ETFs and deeper institutional adoption.
