TL;DR
- Strategy said fair value accounting drove a $12.6 billion Q4 2025 loss as Bitcoin fell about 25% and MSTR dropped 17% on the day.
- CEO Phong Le said bond servicing pressure emerges if Bitcoin falls to $8,000 and stays there five to six years, with $2.25 billion cash.
- Strategy held 713,502 BTC at $54.26 billion cost; BTC Yield was 22.8%, while fear hit 17 and ETFs saw $2.3 billion outflows.
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, posted a Q4 2025 loss that management frames largely as accounting optics more than near term liquidity stress. The core message is that fair value accounting can make quarterly results look catastrophic even when cash needs stay manageable. The company reported a $12.6 billion net loss for common shareholders, or $42.93 per diluted share, driven by unrealized Bitcoin losses after it bought 218,887 BTC for $20.5 billion. Bitcoin fell about 25% from roughly $126,000 to about $89,000 by year end, and the stock dropped 17% on the announcement day, trading near $107.
Watch the livestream of @Strategy's Q4 Earnings Call on X. Starting at 5 PM ET.
We'll cover:
– Q4 financial results
– Recent $BTC volatility
– Resilience of our balance sheet
– Digital Credit $STRC
– Digital Equity $MSTRFollowed by a live Q&A!https://t.co/ipfvNuuWTM
— Strategy (@Strategy) February 5, 2026
Volatility, leverage, and the $8,000 stress line
Since adopting the FASB fair value method at the start of 2025, Strategy marks its Bitcoin to market each quarter, and operating loss hit $17.4 billion. The shift improves transparency but also amplifies quarterly volatility and investor nerves. The software unit grew revenue just under 2% to $123 million, yet it barely drives valuation. MSTR has slid about 75% from its November 2024 high near $540, leaving market cap around $32.1 billion and a 0.85x ratio versus net asset value, so shares trade below the Bitcoin book value.
Debt math is the next focus. Strategy has $8.2 billion of convertible bonds outstanding, with the first major maturity in September 2028 and a put option from March 2027. CEO Phong Le is signaling solvency risk is remote unless Bitcoin collapses and stays depressed for years. With $2.25 billion in cash, he said Bitcoin would need to fall to $8,000 and stay there for five to six years before servicing the converts becomes a real threat. So far, Strategy says it has refinanced without selling Bitcoin, including $25.3 billion raised via equity offerings in 2025.
The balance sheet remains a single asset wager. As of February 2026, Strategy held 713,502 BTC at a $54.26 billion cost basis, averaging $76,052 per coin, implying an unrealized loss near $8.5 billion at about $65,000. Concentration risk persists even as management touts accumulation efficiency and watches liquidity indicators. Its BTC Yield for 2025 was 22.8%, translating to 101,873 net Bitcoin added after dilution. Bitcoin traded 48% below its high, the Fear and Greed Index slid to 17, ETFs saw $2.3 billion of outflows, and Michael Saylor posted one word: HODL, despite the turbulence.
