TL;DR:
- SHIB’s price has retraced 60% over the last year, losing critical support levels on the monthly chart.
- Analysts like Ali Martinez project a slide toward $0.00000138 following the breach of the key $0.00000667 level.
- Despite the pessimism, exchange reserves are at five-year lows and the RSI suggests oversold conditions.
The market’s second-largest memecoin is currently navigating a dark landscape, with Shiba Inu falling 17% in recent weeks. The “dog-themed” crypto is currently trading near $0.00000546, representing a value loss of over 60% annually and placing its market capitalization at $3.2 billion.
The bearish trend at the start of the month was validated by analysts such as Ali Martinez, who warns that losing the $0.00000667 support level has cleared the path for a major capitulation. Technical projections indicate the token could face a 75% collapse, potentially hitting five-year lows in the $0.00000138 range.
Fundamental Factors: Shibarium and Burn Rate Under Scrutiny
Beyond the technical aspects, the Shiba Inu ecosystem faces significant operational challenges fueling negative investor sentiment. The token burn rate—designed to reduce supply and increase value—plunged 99% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, Shibarium, its Layer 2 solution, has failed to recover activity levels seen prior to the exploit suffered in late 2025.
However, amidst the crisis, there are signals that could offer a breather for long-term holders. The supply of SHIB on centralized exchanges has fallen below 81 trillion tokens, its lowest point since May 2021, suggesting a lack of immediate selling pressure from large wallets.
In summary, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near 36, bordering on oversold territory which historically precedes technical bounces. The market will closely watch whether this exchange scarcity is enough to halt the slide or if network weakness will ultimately confirm the dreaded bearish scenario.
