TL;DR
- Macro backdrop: VanEck says Q1 2026 is entering a rare risk-on phase supported by clearer fiscal policy, steadier monetary direction, and shrinking US deficits relative to GDP.
- Bitcoin cycle shift: The firm warns that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle broke in 2025, creating short-term uncertainty even as analysts note healthier conditions after excess leverage was flushed out.
- Medium-term outlook: Analysts expect the first half of 2026 to benefit from regulatory clarity, fiscal support, geopolitical pressures, and sovereign diversification, all reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis.
Markets are entering 2026 with a shift in tone as VanEck signals that the first quarter is shaping into a period of improved visibility. The firm argues that clearer fiscal signals, steadier monetary direction, and more defined investment themes are creating conditions that typically support a risk-on environment. Yet even as broader markets brighten, Bitcoin continues to challenge expectations after breaking from its traditional four-year cycle in 2025, prompting a more cautious stance in the near term.
https://twitter.com/vaneck_us/status/2010860384962425139
Clearer Macro Signals Support Risk-On Conditions
VanEck’s Q1 2026 outlook highlights a macro landscape that finally appears more stable after years of uncertainty. The firm points to shrinking US deficits relative to GDP as a sign of fiscal improvement, helping anchor long-term interest rates and reduce tail risks. These developments tend to benefit higher-risk assets such as technology stocks, artificial intelligence plays, and cryptocurrencies. Still, VanEck notes that Bitcoin’s cycle disruption complicates short-term signals, even as some internal voices remain optimistic about its immediate trajectory.
Bitcoin’s Broken Cycle Creates Short-Term Ambiguity
According to VanEck, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year rhythm fractured in 2025, making near-term forecasting more difficult. The firm expects the next three to six months to remain uncertain despite improving structural conditions. Analysts like Justin d’Anethan argue that recent price action shows excess leverage has been flushed out, creating a healthier market foundation. He believes Bitcoin’s rise in a low-leverage environment reflects more grounded bullish sentiment and less extreme bearish pressure.
Analysts See Medium-Term Strength Forming
Most analysts referenced in the report emphasize a medium-term lens rather than short-term volatility. They argue that regulatory clarity, fiscal support, and geopolitical pressures are aligning in ways that could benefit crypto markets in the first half of 2026. Tim Sun of HashKey Group says the volatility of late 2025 has given way to a clearer trajectory supported by stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and improving regulatory conditions.
Broader Macro Forces Reinforce Bitcoin’s Investment Thesis
Beyond market structure, broader macro dynamics are fueling optimism. Will Clemente highlights rising geopolitical risk, strong equity markets, and sovereign diversification into alternative assets as factors aligning with Bitcoin’s original investment thesis. These forces, combined with improving fiscal stability, contribute to a backdrop that could support renewed crypto momentum. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at around $91K, increasing nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.
