A new paper by Google has sparked a major debate around the quantum threat to cryptographic security, particularly elliptic curve cryptography, which protects private keys on networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The paper estimates that breaking the ECDLP-256 standard would require between 1,200 and 1,450 logical qubits, equivalent to between 500,000 and 1.2 million physical qubits. The most advanced systems today operate at a tiny fraction of that scale, roughly 1,000 times below the threshold needed to execute a real attack.
QCP, a firm specializing in crypto derivatives, argues that quantum computing represents a structural long-term risk, not an immediate threat. Furthermore, the potential risk is not exclusive to cryptocurrencies.
The same elliptic curve cryptography protects banking networks, encrypted communications, and financial infrastructure around the world, including systems such as SWIFT. If a breakthrough were to compromise that standard, it would carry systemic implications for the entire digital infrastructure.
For this reason, a coordinated response has been set in motion at a global level: NIST’s PQC program and multiple sector-wide initiatives are working on standards resistant to quantum-based attacks. The transition will be gradual and will encompass the entire industry, not just crypto assets.
Source: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/quantum-risk-is-real-but-not-crypto-specific/
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