TL;DR
- Bitcoin rose above $92,000 and Ether above $3,100 in early Asian trading, with QCP calling it a potential regime shift after December’s range.
- QCP cited fading tax-loss selling, renewed policy optionality, firmer equities and softer oil, while flagging talk of a “shadow” Bitcoin reserve as speculation.
- Options signals improved as put skew compressed and interest grew in January 2026 $100,000 calls and straddles, but QCP said positioning stays measured notably.
Crypto markets opened the year with a sharp lift as Bitcoin and Ether broke out of December ranges and risk appetite returned. In early Asian trading, Bitcoin climbed above $92,000 while Ether pushed past $3,100, according to QCP’s Asia Colour note. QCP said the move looks more like a potential regime shift than a short-lived bounce, helped by fading year-end tax-loss selling and renewed policy optionality. The rally arrived alongside firmer global equities and softer oil prices, reinforcing a broader risk-on mood across markets. Still, the desk warned that positioning remains cautious despite rising demand.
Options Markets Hint at a Regime Shift
QCP argued that crypto’s strength is re-aligning with traditional risk assets compared with late 2025, while headlines added fuel to the narrative. The note said markets were digesting news of a US special forces operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is expected to face proceedings in the United States. QCP added that lower oil could act as a disinflationary tailwind. It also flagged speculation around seized digital assets and talk of a potential “shadow” Bitcoin reserve, while cautioning against treating such claims as fact. As sovereign interest stayed visible.
In derivatives, QCP said options markets have turned more supportive as put skew compressed, signaling reduced demand for downside protection. At the same time, interest grew in longer-dated upside exposure, including January 2026 $100,000 Bitcoin calls, suggesting traders are pricing greater upside potential after the breakout. Demand for topside structures such as straddles also picked up, pointing to an appetite for volatility exposure rather than simple directional bets. Even so, QCP stressed that positioning remains measured for now. It asked whether the bounce reflects options expiry effects or the start of a broader leg higher.
That balance is central to QCP’s framing: upside participation is building, but traders remain disciplined. The firm said a continued spot grind higher raises the odds of a “gamma-assisted extension,” yet noted that recent US sessions have faded rallies often enough to keep risk-taking in check. In practice, the message is constructive but cautious: markets look healthier than they did in December, while participants still expect two-way price action and are structuring exposure accordingly. For QCP, the breakout improves the tone, not the need for restraint. Put differently, optimism is rising, but leverage is controlled.
