TLDR
- Almost 50% of the XRP circulating supply has entered loss territory following weeks of steady declines.
- Whales (the top 1% of addresses) have begun a slight distribution of their asset holdings.
- The price needs to break above the critical resistance at $1.94 to invalidate the current bearish structure.
Ripple is facing a moment of uncertainty. After several failed breakout attempts, the asset remains trapped in a persistent downtrend that is beginning to shatter investor confidence. On-chain data shows an accelerated deterioration; currently, a large portion of the XRP supply is underwater—at least nearly 48%—which jeopardizes short-term price stability.
The asset’s profitability has dropped to 52%, levels not seen since November 2024. Generally, when the proportion of coins in profit falls below 50%, the risk of panic selling increases significantly, often preceding extended periods of decline.
Ripple Whales Signal Caution
It is not just the concerning figure of the XRP supply in loss; the behavior of large holders adds to the pressure. Macro data indicates that the top 1% of the wealthiest accounts, which control 87.6% of the total supply, slightly decreased their positions this month.
Although the percentage change seems minimal, in terms of institutional volume, this distribution exerts selling pressure that hinders any attempt at an organic recovery. Without renewed demand to absorb these sales, the price of XRP, currently trading near $1.92, runs the risk of seeking lower support levels. The immediate resistance is set at $1.94, a barrier that has kept the price under control for more than six weeks.
A “Christmas miracle” is needed for the outlook to change—something that manages to push the price above $2.00. Only a decisive breakout of this psychological level could reduce the amount of XRP in loss, restore market confidence, and invalidate the bearish thesis currently dominating the chart. Otherwise, the most likely scenario remains consolidation or a retracement toward the $1.85 zone.
