TL;DR:
- XMR recorded a drop of nearly 12% in the last 24 hours, leading losses within the privacy-focused cryptocurrency sector.
- The breach of a historical ascending trendline signals a structural shift toward a prolonged corrective phase.
- Open Interest has decreased drastically due to panic-driven position closures, outpacing forced liquidations.
The privacy segment has been hit by the current fragility of the crypto market. In this scenario, investors are analyzing the next key level for Monero, which, according to current technical patterns, could be found near $266 in the short term.
Recent price action invalidated an ascending support line that was vital for the previous rally toward $800. By losing this structure, the asset’s dynamics shifted from a temporary consolidation to a retracement phase that threatens an additional 32% drop.
Furthermore, the Money Flow Index (MFI) stands at levels around 26, confirming a constant capital outflow. However, this indicator continues to trend downward, suggesting that selling pressure has yet to find a definitive equilibrium point.
Derivatives Dynamics and Potential Recovery Scenarios
Despite weakness in the spot market, futures market data presents a complex reading with many nuances. Although the price is falling, the Long/Short ratio remains tilted toward long positions, meaning many traders are still betting on a rebound.
On the other hand, the sharp drop in Open Interest to $141.15 million reveals that participants are voluntarily closing positions out of fear. This behavior is key, as it indicates that aggressive selling intensity could be exhausting itself near the lower Bollinger Bands.
In summary, if XMR manages to stabilize at its current support, there is a possibility of a technical rally toward $519. However, until market confidence is restored, bearish risks will continue to dominate price action toward the $266 target.
