TL;DR
- McGlone says volatility will “trickle up” into 2026 as crypto market cap slips 3% to $2.61T and Bitcoin wobbles in thin liquidity near $75,000.
- He flags Bitcoin support near $50,000 with tail risk to $10,000, and Ether support at $2,000 with a longer-term $1,000 target.
- His cross-asset thresholds include S&P 500 above 7,000, 180-day volatility rising from 11% toward 17%, and deflation risk rated 10 as gold and silver slide.
Volatility is resurfacing across risk assets, and Mike McGlone is warning crypto may be structurally unprepared for the next wave. His 2026 base case is that volatility will “trickle up” after years of excess, pressuring the weakest liquidity first. The total digital-asset market cap fell 3% in 24 hours to $2.61T, while trading volume hovered near $186B and the Fear and Greed index flashed “Extreme Fear.” Bitcoin briefly slipped below $75,000 before stabilizing, showing how fast sentiment can flip when investors shift from FOMO to exits, and how liquidity can thin when bids step back.
Volatility playbook and downside levels
McGlone’s downside framework centers on Bitcoin support near $50,000, with tail risk toward $10,000. He is effectively telling desks to treat $50,000 as a scenario trigger, not a comfort blanket. He argues metals peaked in 2025 alongside crypto, including gold, and that the unwind can extend as volatility resurfaces. Bitcoin is down 12% over seven days and traded around $77,478 at last check. He sees Ether facing a similar setup: $2,000 as initial support, more speed bump than floor, and a longer-term target near $1,000. Ether traded near $2,276 after a 21% weekly drop today.
McGlone says the S&P 500 must hold above 7,000, and he mapped levels to watch: copper near $6 a pound, silver at $100 an ounce, WTI at $65 a barrel, natural gas at $5 per MBTU, and a 5% yield on the US 30-year Treasury. In that scenario, he frames $100,000 Bitcoin as a ceiling, not a launchpad. He added equity volatility is too low, with S&P 500 180-day volatility near 11% versus a 10-year average near 17%, and Treasury futures look poised for a breakout, with 100-week Bollinger bands narrowest since 2008 this year.
McGlone rates deflation risk a 10, arguing inflation is followed by deflation and pointing to China and Japan’s decades-long experience as a template, with 2026 as the timing call. He says the market is sliding into a deflationary shift where demand fades without a single shock event. Weekend trade reinforced that feel: Bitcoin dipped below $76,000 in thin liquidity, about 40% off its 2025 peak, with no cascading liquidations. Gold fell as much as 8.1% Monday, briefly below $4,500 after trading near $5,600 in January, while silver slid 15% after a record 26% Friday drop.
