TL;DR:
- Bernstein identified Circle and Coinbase as the main exposure vehicles to the USDC stablecoin amid the rise of agentic payments.
- Coinbase’s x402 protocol processed $25 million in transactions in 30 days, compared to the $5,000 recorded by Stripe in its first week.
- USDC reached all-time highs in supply and transaction volume, leading globally despite ranking second in market capitalization.
Investment bank Bernstein published a note identifying Circle and Coinbase as the primary investment vehicles to capture growth in the stablecoin market, focusing on Circle’s USDC and its role in so-called agentic payments. According to the analysis, the partnership between both companies forms the core of an investment thesis backed by mass adoption and real-time utility.
Agentic payments are transactions executed entirely by software or autonomous devices, without human intervention. Unlike recurring subscriptions or conventional automatic payments, these systems allow machines to negotiate, authorize and settle operations in real time.
Bernstein highlighted that stablecoins are particularly suited to this model because they are programmable, borderless and capable of handling micropayments. Contract logic —such as escrow deposits, conditional releases or revenue distribution— can be integrated directly into the currency, eliminating dependence on banks or external confirmations.
Protocols Redefining the Machine Economy
Several companies launched infrastructure to facilitate these automated payments. Coinbase introduced the x402 protocol, which embeds transactions directly into the HTTP layer. Circle, for its part, developed a nanopayments infrastructure designed for autonomous agents. Stripe is also seeking its place with its Machine Payments Protocol, built on the Tempo blockchain. Initial volumes paint an uneven picture: Coinbase’s x402 protocol processed $25 million in 30 days, while Stripe’s system recorded just $5,000 in its first week.
Bernstein clarified that machine-to-machine payments represent additional potential, not a necessary condition for stablecoin growth. The sector already shows robust adoption across multiple use cases, including cross-border settlements, card-linked banking and international remittances.
Circle and USDC at All-Time Highs
Circle’s stablecoin USDC reached records in both supply and transaction volume, driven by fintechs operating exclusively on stablecoin rails. Despite ranking second in market capitalization, USDC leads transaction volumes globally. Bernstein argued that the stablecoin sector is differentiating itself from the broader crypto market, consolidating as a high-growth financial category with its own utility and sustained demand.
