TL;DR
- Willy Woo says markets price “Q-Day,” when quantum computing could break cryptography and reshape the Bitcoin versus gold narrative.
- He flags about 4 million “lost” BTC in exposed-key addresses, estimated at 25%-30% of supply, as early targets that could become spendable.
- Woo puts hard-fork freezing at 25% odds; developers prefer phased migration, and Jefferies strategist Wood rotated from Bitcoin into gold with BTC 50% off its high.
Willy Woo is warning that quantum computing is no longer a niche worry, and that shift is bleeding into the Bitcoin versus gold storyline. What stands out is this: Markets are starting to price in a future “Q-Day,” and that is giving gold fresh narrative momentum. In a Monday post on X, the onchain analyst said a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break today’s public key cryptography. He argued that this risk helps explain why Bitcoin’s long-running valuation uptrend, when measured against gold, is being questioned. Investors are now treating the debate as portfolio math.
https://twitter.com/willywoo/status/2023258908320760128
Quantum risk and Bitcoin’s gold benchmark
Woo’s scenario centers on “lost” Bitcoin that could return to circulation if quantum tools can derive private keys from exposed public keys. A key takeaway is clear: Roughly 4 million “lost” BTC is framed as a quantum-sensitive overhang that can challenge Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative. Blockchain researchers cited in the discussion estimate the exposed coins represent around 25%-30% of the Bitcoin supply and sit in addresses whose public keys are already visible onchain. Woo added that these addresses would likely be among the first at risk in a quantum attack. That visibility changes the threat model.
Governance is the friction point, and the pressure point is this: Freezing compromised coins via a hard fork is framed as a 25% probability event that could reopen debates on property rights and fungibility. It notes freezing would upend norms around immutability, splitting camps between backward-compatible fixes and rule rewrites to protect early balances. Even with a 75% likelihood that the coins remain untouched, Woo urged investors to model a chance that BTC equal to “8 years of enterprise accumulation” becomes spendable again. He said the discount versus gold could last five to 15 years.
Developers and cryptographers say Bitcoin is not facing an imminent doomsday and prefer a phased post-quantum migration, not an emergency hard fork. The transition steers users toward new address formats and key hygiene. In practice, The roadmap is gradual, even as institutions treat quantum as a mainstream risk input. Woo’s warning lands with Bitcoin trading almost 50% off its all-time high. Alex Gladstein said unlocked coins could be accumulated by a nation-state, not dumped. In January, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood cut Bitcoin from his model portfolio and rotated into gold, citing “cryptographically relevant” quantum machines.
