TL;DR:
- Bitcoin closed the week above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, according to Galaxy’s Alex Thorn.
- In four of the five completed bear markets, reclaiming that level confirmed the cycle floor was “established,” though the 2021–2022 cycle saw two failed crossovers.
- Joe Consorti noted that closing above the 50-week moving average historically implies a 75% probability of marking the cycle bottom.
Bitcoin closed the week of September 21 at $81,159 on Coinbase, surpassing its 50-week moving average, which stood at $78,788 according to TradingView. It was the first weekly close above that level in 45 weeks —since November 9, 2025— and also the highest weekly close in four months.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, reported the figures in real time and framed them within a historical pattern he had identified in August. “Reclaiming the 50-week moving average has historically served as a strong confirmation that bear market lows are established,” he wrote.
🟠 BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS
regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are “in”
bitcoin is up 29% in 35 days pic.twitter.com/HzKVUrxMVz
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) September 21, 2026
His analysis found that in four of the five completed bear markets that lost that level, the first weekly close above it was not followed by a lower low. The exception was the 2021–2022 cycle, when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the average twice before falling even further.
Bitcoin Sends Mixed Signals
Market analyst Joe Consorti offered a more optimistic reading: historically, a close above the 50-week moving average carries a 75% probability of marking the cycle bottom, a figure that rises to 100% if the COVID crash is excluded.
Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, noted that a close above that level was “the last thing he needed to see before declaring a bull market,” and recalled that in 2017, 2020, and 2023 Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above that resistance.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, cautioned that a single weekly close is not enough to confirm the cycle bottom. “What matters now is whether Bitcoin can hold above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows,” he said.
Lee highlighted that the context is stronger than at the beginning of the year: BTC recovered significantly from the July lows at $57,000, successive liquidations cleared accumulated leverage and there are signs of returning institutional demand.
Trader Craig Cobb focused his attention on $83,000 as a critical level, since breaking above it would eliminate the pattern of lower lows on the monthly chart. His second indicator involves the quarterly chart: he looks for a sequence of red candles followed by a green one, with the condition that the next candle breaks the high of that green candle. That pattern has occurred 15 times in Bitcoin’s history; in 11 of them, the price ultimately reached a new all-time high.
