TL;DR
- Analyst Frank Cappelleri noted that Bitcoin’s chart replicates the technical structure that preceded the 400% rally recorded in the previous cycle.
- The current pattern shows a 54% drop in this cycle versus 70% in 2022-2023, and Cappelleri sees a similar base that could lead to new highs.
- BIT Research places the True Market Mean at $76,900 and projects a bullish scenario of between $185,000 and $215,000 for BTC.
Technical analyst Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin’s chart replicates the configuration that preceded the rally of 400% from the previous cycle.
Cappelleri clarified that he is not projecting an equivalent gain for the current cycle. Instead, he identified what he described as “a very similar base” that could eventually bring the asset to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin’s Chart and the Mirror of the 2022-2023 Cycle
Cappelleri compared the current price structure with the period spanning 2022 to 2023, when BTC recorded a drop of approximately 70%. Against that backdrop, the analyst noted that this cycle’s pullback is around 54%, and argued that the resulting pattern “also looks like a bullish formation.”
That previous correction culminated in a large-scale breakout, and Cappelleri argued that Bitcoin tends to move with force once momentum is activated. “Bitcoin really does well with technicals,” he stated, referring to BTC’s historical consistency in response to technical analysis signals.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $84,000, up just over 1% in the last 24 hours. BTC has gained 10% over 14 days and 7% over 30 days, though it remains 27% below its values from a year ago. Notably, the third-quarter gain reached 42%, its best Q3 since 2017.
Mixed Signals and Risk Variables
Other indicators offer a more nuanced picture. According to data from Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 41,025 BTC over ten days, bringing their combined balance to 13.64 million BTC, a dynamic that has historically preceded more favorable market conditions.
For its part, BIT Research argued that the bear market concluded when Bitcoin sustained prices above $62,900 in late July, and projected a bullish scenario of between $185,000 and $215,000, while acknowledging uncertainty around the timing and the path. On the other hand, analyst Ali Martinez recalled that BTC fell after each of the four U.S. midterm elections, recording pullbacks of between 27% and 72%, which adds a risk variable heading into November.
