TL;DR:
- Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 after the weekly close and the weekly MACD is about to produce a bullish signal that in 2025 generated $25,000 in gains over two months.
- Trump’s deadline to strike Iranian infrastructure expires on Tuesday. Oil prices surpass $115 per barrel and pressure risk assets.
- This week’s PCE and CPI inflation data could push U.S. inflation to 3.7% if crude prices hold for seven more weeks.
The market faces this week a confluence of technical signals, macroeconomic pressures, and geopolitical tensions that could determine the short-term direction of Bitcoin. Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 after Sunday’s weekly close, reaching new highs for April, although analysts warn that the risks of falling into new bearish paths have not disappeared.
On the technical side, the MACD indicator on the weekly chart of BTC/USD is close to producing a bullish crossover, the first since May 2025. On that occasion, the price of Bitcoin went from $94,000 to $119,000 in just two months, setting new all-time highs.
Weekly MACD: Memory of Bear Markets
GalaxyTrading noted on X that both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets took approximately 245 days to see that same crossover turn positive. In 2026, that threshold would be reached toward late April. At the same time, the weekly close recovered the 200-week exponential moving average, a level that the market monitors closely as a long-term trend reference.
However, the technical structure known as a bear flag also persists, a pattern that already triggered a drop of approximately $25,000 in January. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, warned that Bitcoin’s price action remains nearly identical to the prior pattern and that a breakdown toward the mid-$40,000 range is part of his base scenario. New lows are “probably just a matter of time.”
Bitcoin: Geopolitics and Inflation
On Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, the deadline set by President Donald Trump to strike Iranian infrastructure if no agreement is reached that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz expires. The president has already pushed back that date on four occasions, and reports of a possible 45-day truce keep the question open. WTI crude surpassed $115 per barrel at the start of the week.
Meanwhile, the market awaits PCE inflation data for February and the CPI report for March. The firm Kobeissi Letter projected that if oil holds at current levels for seven more weeks, CPI inflation could climb to 3.7%. Its base scenario already places that indicator at around 3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target. Total liquidations in the crypto market exceeded $250 million in 24 hours, reflecting the aggressiveness with which speculative traders are taking positions in derivatives.
