TL;DR
- CZ suggests Bitcoin may enter a super cycle driven by institutional capital.
- Supportive macro policy under Trump and ETF flows are key tailwinds.
- He remains cautiously optimistic, acknowledging uncertainty in macro and regulatory factors.
Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao used the Bitcoin MENA stage to argue that Bitcoin (BTC) could be entering a “super cycle” – a longer and stronger expansion phase where institutional capital drives price action instead of retail traders. He pointed to Wall Street, macro policy under President Donald Trump and growing ETF-style flows as the main forces behind the current setup.
He described Wall Street as “the largest institutional market in the world” and said crypto now links grassroots adoption with global finance. In his view, Bitcoin no longer trades only on sentiment from retail speculators; hedge funds, asset managers, banks and corporate treasuries now guide a large share of flows.
Macro conditions form the second pillar of his thesis
CZ highlighted Trump’s pro-crypto tone, the possibility of rate cuts and a return to quantitative easing (QE) as direct tailwinds for Bitcoin liquidity. Lower rates and balance-sheet expansion usually feed risk assets, and CZ expects investors to diversify once equity portfolios sit on strong gains.
He summed up the mechanism in simple language: “When the stock market is doing well, people have cash… and they participate in crypto as well.” In other words, a buoyant equity market, easy policy and rising cash balances in brokerage accounts can spill over into BTC and other digital assets.
CZ also addressed the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle
Earlier bull runs often peaked near December in four-year intervals, after halving events reduced new supply. According to CZ, institutional adoption and supportive macro policy may now override that old timing model.
In his words, “That force may be strong enough to offset the four-year cycle,” with a direct hint that 2026 may not repeat earlier patterns. Under a genuine super cycle, Bitcoin would progress through a longer expansion where corrections stay contained, while new institutional capital keeps arriving through ETFs, custody platforms and onshore trading venues.
Even with a bullish tone, CZ avoided absolute predictions. He stressed the uncertainty around macroeconomic data, geopolitics and regulation, factors that can change quickly and disrupt any script. He closed with a cautious line: “We may be seeing a super cycle next year. We’ll see. I’m not sure.”
The next few years will show whether Bitcoin still obeys its old calendar or whether CZ’s super cycle vision takes hold in a market now dominated by large funds and regulated capital.
