TL;DR
- CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator has turned positive after eight months in bearish territory, signaling a possible shift in the market cycle.
- At the same time, wallets holding more than 100 BTC accumulated around 60,000 BTC during August, while smaller holders reduced their positions.
- Bitcoin’s recovery above $80,000 has strengthened the bullish setup, although confirmation still depends on sustained momentum.
Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential market-cycle reversal as on-chain data points to stronger participation from large holders. CryptoQuant’s Cycle Momentum indicator recently moved back above zero after eight months in negative territory, increasing the probability that Bitcoin is emerging from its prolonged bearish phase.
The indicator, which compares CryptoQuant’s PnL Index with its 365-day moving average, currently sits around 0.4. Analyst Gaah said the signal points to a high probability of Bitcoin breaking its downtrend, although the reversal requires additional confirmation. The model would need to advance toward the 20–30 range while price recovery continues over the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Turns Positive As Whales Accumulate
The timing of the signal is notable because large Bitcoin holders have been absorbing supply during the latest recovery. CryptoQuant data analyzed by Woo Minkyu shows that wallets holding more than 100 BTC added approximately 60,000 BTC between August 1 and August 30. At prices near $78,000, that accumulation represented roughly $4.7 billion.
Smaller holders moved in the opposite direction. Wallets holding between 1 and 100 BTC reduced their balances by about 33,000 BTC, while addresses holding less than 1 BTC sold close to 14,000 BTC. The divergence suggests that larger investors were willing to accumulate as other market participants took profits during the rally.
Bitcoin also broke through the $62,000–$65,000 range on August 19, after spending much of the month trading near those levels. The subsequent advance toward $81,000 provided additional evidence that demand was capable of absorbing available supply and pushing the market into higher price territory.
Market Structure Gives Bulls More Room
The accumulation trend does not eliminate short-term risks. CryptoQuant data shows that Binance Bitcoin reserves recently reached approximately 687,000 BTC, the highest level recorded on the exchange in 2026. Higher exchange balances can increase potential selling pressure, although they can also reflect custody movements, collateral requirements or trading activity rather than immediate distribution.
That distinction matters because Bitcoin’s recovery is occurring alongside renewed institutional participation and changing liquidity conditions. Earlier CryptoQuant research has linked strong ETF inflows and spot demand with previous rebounds, showing how institutional capital can reinforce on-chain accumulation when available supply becomes tighter.
