TL;DR
- Satoshi’s one million BTC and the old addresses could require a freeze if quantum computing manages to compromise Bitcoin.
- Roughly 6.89 million Bitcoins could become exposed.
- The protocol would require an upgrade to mitigate the risk, but a social consensus to freeze dormant coins would take time.
The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, stated that the 1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto could need to be frozen if quantum computing reaches the capability to attack Bitcoin. His proposal also includes the old addresses that have held unmoved coins for years.
According to Ju, under certain conditions, a sufficiently powerful quantum machine could derive a private key from a public key exposed on the blockchain. Once a public key appears on-chain, the risk remains indefinitely. In that scenario, a coin that appears secure today could become transferable by an attacker.
How Many BTC Are at Risk?
The executive maintains that the Bitcoin protocol will require an upgrade to mitigate that risk. Users who fail to adopt that improvement would remain exposed. The alternative for the old coins would be a protocol-level freeze or the possibility that they end up in the hands of quantum attackers.
Approximately 6.89 million BTC are vulnerable to potential quantum attacks. Of that total, 1.91 million BTC correspond to P2PK addresses that inherently display the public key. Up to 4.98 million BTC may have exposed a public key in prior transactions. In addition, 3.4 million BTC have remained dormant for more than a decade, including the 1 million Bitcoins linked to Satoshi.
The Factor of Social Debate and Consensus
Ju notes that, at present, a quantum attack against Bitcoin is not economically viable. However, a sharp reduction in the cost of that technology would alter that balance. The volume of Bitcoins at risk represents hundreds of billions of dollars at current prices, which would constitute a sufficient incentive if the technological barrier declines.
The CEO recalls that the Bitcoin community took more than three years to resolve the block size debate and that the process resulted in hard forks. He also points out that the SegWit2x proposal failed to secure sufficient support. A decision to freeze dormant coins would follow a similar dynamic. Ju states that technical solutions move quickly, while social consensus requires more time
