TL;DR
- Outlook: Bernstein expects a long, exhausting bull run that carries through 2026 and could peak in 2027, powered by U.S. policy support, institutional adoption, and a market broadening beyond traditional cryptocurrencies.
- Winners: Targets rise to $160 for HOOD, $510 for COIN, and $230 for CRCL, anchored by July crypto volumes of $16.8 billion at Robinhood, Coinbase’s $100 billion month, and 44% transaction revenue lift.
- Stablecoins: Bernstein sees USDC growing from $68 billion to $99 billion in 2026 and $173 billion in 2027, with bank and payments partnerships, the Arc blockchain, and rising on-chain settlement.
Bernstein doubles down on a long-run thesis: the current crypto upswing may extend well into 2027, even after a week of cooling. The firm cites supportive U.S. policy, accelerating institutional adoption, and a market broadening beyond Bitcoin as key drivers. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra outline a lengthy and tiring cycle that maintains its momentum until 2026, possibly reaching its peak a year after.
Policy, adoption, breadth
Bernstein says U.S. leadership is in mission-critical mode to make the country the crypto capital, lengthening the runway for digital assets. The next phase will widen past Bitcoin, with Ether, Solana, and DeFi tokens powering inflows to trading venues and stablecoin issuers. The takeaway is a supercycle defined by breadth, deeper liquidity, and policy clarity that invites large allocators to scale.
Equity targets and volumes
The brokerage lifted Robinhood’s target to $160 from $105 on July crypto trading volumes of $16.8 billion, a 110% month-over-month jump, alongside sturdy equities and options activity. Robinhood’s acquisition of Bitstamp introduces an institutional user base, and the addition of staking and tokenized products in Europe provides new growth opportunities. HOOD, COIN, and CRCL recently printed around $115, $320, and $141, underscoring equity leverage to a prolonged cycle.
Coinbase catalysts
Coinbase drew a $510 target as July volumes crossed $100 billion, with transaction revenue up 44% versus the prior quarter’s average. Analysts highlight derivatives expansion, including perpetual futures and integrating Deribit’s options platform after a $2.9 billion acquisition, plus USDC adoption as catalysts. The note casts Coinbase’s everything exchange across spot, derivatives, tokenization, and bank and fintech partnerships as infrastructure scale.
Stablecoins and Circle
Bernstein kept Circle at $230, projecting USDC’s supply to climb from $68 billion to $99 billion in 2026 and $173 billion in 2027. They see USDC as a liquidity backbone for DeFi, with bank and payments partnerships offsetting interest rate sensitivity. Circle’s payments focused Arc blockchain and a rising share of on-chain settlement are pitched as differentiators as breadth beyond Bitcoin sustains inflows to platforms and issuers into 2027.
