TL;DR
- Bitcoin ended 2025 down 5.7%, challenging expectations tied to traditional four-year cycles.
- Experts note institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors now drive price movements more than historical patterns.
- While a deep downturn is possible, improved market structure, healthier leverage, and ongoing ETF and treasury demand may limit losses and support a disciplined market recovery.
2026 starts with heightened uncertainty for crypto markets after Bitcoin’s 5.7% decline in 2025 and a sharp 23.7% drop in Q4, its worst quarterly performance since 2018. Analysts are divided on whether this year could bring a severe crypto bear market or if the market’s growing institutionalization could reduce volatility.
Bitcoin Cycles May No Longer Dictate 2026 Outcomes
Traditionally, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has served as a reference for anticipating bear and bull phases. Under this model, 2026 would signal a downturn. Yet many experts argue the cycle is losing relevance. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, says,
“Institutional ETFs and corporate treasury adoption have changed market dynamics. Price moves are now more influenced by macro and geopolitical factors than by halving schedules.”
Jamie Elkaleh, CMO of Bitget Wallet, adds that liquidity and Fed policy increasingly outweigh halving effects.
“Institutional inflows create a steadier market floor, reducing sharp supply-driven swings,” he explained.
Andrei Grachev of DWF Labs agrees, noting crypto behaves more like a global asset class, making simple cycle-based predictions less reliable.
Key Risks That Could Trigger a 2026 Bear Market
Despite cautious optimism, experts point to potential triggers for sharper declines. Puckrin highlights tightening liquidity, a prolonged risk-off environment, or coordinated institutional selling. Elkaleh warns that external shocks, such as a US equity sell-off after an AI bubble burst or renewed Fed tightening, could push markets lower. Konstantins Vasilenko of Paybis notes that limited retail participation combined with stalled institutional flows could extend downturns, while Maksym Sakharov of WeFi flags hidden leverage in “safe yield” products or algorithmic stablecoins as systemic risks.
At the same time, certain developments could prevent a severe bear phase. Grachev points to healthier leverage profiles and long-term institutional capital as stabilizing factors. Elkaleh adds that sovereign adoption of Bitcoin or tokenization of financial assets could strengthen demand, and stablecoin usage combined with supportive US policy could anchor the market.
Analysts recommend tracking structural signals such as liquidity, derivatives activity, stablecoin flows, and on-chain demand rather than focusing solely on price movements.
