TL;DR:
- Ethereum’s weekly fees decreased from a peak of over $200 million at the beginning of 2024 to nearly $10 million today.
- The crypto asset records a trading price of $1,870 at the time of the industry report’s publication.
- The Dencun technical upgrade doubled the number of monthly active users on the network by processing transactions on layer-2 solutions.
This Wednesday, the 5-year valuation framework focused on Ether’s financial structure presented by the digital asset management firm CoinShares was unveiled. The firm detailed the macroeconomic and technical conditions under which Ethereum could reach $14,135 by the year 2031.
Ethereum is getting harder to value.
After Dencun, fees collapsed, but network usage kept growing. Our latest research by Luke Nolan (@eazygambit) introduces a 5-year sum-of-parts framework for ETH, combining cash flows, monetary premium, and network effects.
Base case: ~$4,935… pic.twitter.com/dd938gknAR
— CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) June 2, 2026
The analysis prepared by Luke Nolan, senior research associate, employs a sum-of-the-parts model that combines cash flows, monetary premium, and network effects. The report explains that this methodology seeks to accurately reflect the operational transformation of the platform following the implementation of its latest infrastructure improvements.
Currently, Ether is trading near $1,870 amid a structural reduction in fee collection directly on the main layer. Data from CoinShares suggest that the long-term value of the asset no longer strictly depends on transaction costs, but rather on its role as collateral for backing and settlement.
The document establishes three specific price targets for the close of this 5-year cycle. The lowest macroeconomic projection places the asset at $1,443, while the base case estimates a price of $4,935 per unit.
Structural changes and the impact of Dencun
The Dencun upgrade reduced the ecosystem’s processing costs through the introduction of “blob” type transactions. According to the report, this change migrated the primary execution activity to secondary layer-2 networks, decreasing direct fee revenues for the mainnet.
The most optimistic scenario raised in the research requires the trading volume on decentralized exchanges to grow at a compound annual rate of 25%. The current trend calculated by the investment firm assumes that the market share of Ethereum’s layer 1 would rise to 35% in such a favorable environment.
The annual inflow into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for this asset is projected at $40,000 million under the report’s accelerated growth parameters. The entity’s analysis points out that adoption by corporate treasuries could act as a demand catalyst if the market reduces the available supply.
The price evolution of Ether remains subject to the resolution of risk factors such as competition from alternative blockchains and clarity in financial regulation policies.
