TL;DR
- $3.19 billion in BTC options and $574.8 million in ETH options expire today, impacting short-term trends.
- The maximum pressure points for BTC and ETH are $100,000 and $3,300, respectively, with current prices slightly above these levels.
- Regulatory initiatives and the U.S. digital asset reserve plan add bullish fundamentals to the market outlook.
The cryptocurrency market is preparing for a day of significant volatility, with the expiration of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options totaling nearly $3.7 billion in nominal value. This event has drawn the attention of analysts and traders due to its potential to influence short-term trends, thanks to the volume of contracts, their nominal value, and the large number of positions involved. Traders are particularly focused on how these expirations will affect momentum and liquidity in the market, which could trigger larger-than-usual price swings.
How Will Expirations Impact the Market?
Today, the Bitcoin options expiration reaches a nominal value of $3.19 billion. According to Deribit data, these contracts are being traded with a put-to-call ratio of 0.48, indicating that call options outweigh puts. Additionally, the maximum pressure point for BTC is $100,000, which is the price at which most contracts would lose value. Despite this, Bitcoin’s current price is slightly above this level, around $103,388.
For Ethereum, 173,830 options contracts are about to expire, with a nominal value of $574.8 million. The put-to-call ratio here is 0.47, also suggesting a preference for calls over puts. The maximum pressure point for ETH is $3,300, while its current price stands at $3,305, indicating traders may be positioning themselves near key levels.
What Does This Mean for Traders?
The impact of these options expirations will largely depend on the strike prices and positions traders are holding. Analysts point out that if these options expire at current levels, many contracts will expire worthless, causing significant losses for the holders of these options.
Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the creation of a digital asset reserve, an initiative that could include more cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin.
Additionally, a working group has been formed to develop a federal regulatory framework for digital assets. Furthermore, the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) repealed the SAB 121 policy, allowing banks to custody cryptocurrencies.
These initiatives could boost the cryptocurrency market in the medium term. Despite this, the market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase.
