TL;DR
- Bitwise filed with the SEC to launch PredictionShares ETFs holding event contracts tied to 2028 U.S. presidential outcomes.
- GraniteShares and Roundhill submitted similar filings as analysts say the push reflects the “ETF-ization of everything” and could broaden event-linked products. Bloomberg’s Seyffart and Balchunas flagged momentum.
- Platforms face state-federal clashes: Nevada challenged Coinbase’s offering, Polymarket sued Massachusetts, Kalshi fought Tennessee, and the CFTC claimed exclusive federal authority.
Bitwise has filed a prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch exchange traded funds that would invest in event contracts tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election under a new “PredictionShares” brand. The main signal is Wall Street trying to repackage prediction market exposure inside an ETF wrapper that fits existing distribution. Instead of treating election outcomes as commentary, the structure turns them into tradable positions whose pricing can move with sentiment. The filing also lands as issuers look for fresh, event driven products beyond standard crypto beta.
Bitwise puts election odds into ETF rails today
The prospectus says the funds would hold event contracts whose value rises or falls based on specific political outcomes, the same basic instruments traded on regulated prediction venues where shares represent implied probabilities. The competitive cue is that Bitwise is not alone, with GraniteShares and Roundhill submitting similar SEC filings to test demand. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said this reflects a broader “financialization and ETF-ization of everything” trend. His colleague Eric Balchunas called Roundhill’s proposals potentially groundbreaking if approved, because they could widen event linked offerings. Filings show managers racing first.
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to outcomes such as a candidate winning an election or legislation passing, with prices fluctuating as perceived probabilities shift in real time. The product thesis is that an ETF can translate that probability curve into a hedgeable position inside standard portfolios. Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, said a recent “boatload of filings” would hold election linked contracts and let investors hedge based on how they expect markets to react to the 2028 race, describing the direction as another step toward gamified finance.
These filings arrive as prediction platforms face legal battles that sharpen the derivatives versus gambling debate. The regulatory friction point is a federal-state jurisdiction fight that could determine whether event contracts scale. This month, Nevada regulators challenged Coinbase’s offering over unlicensed sports betting, while an executive said the contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight. Polymarket previously sued Massachusetts over efforts to curb operations. Kalshi fought challenges, including temporarily blocking a Tennessee order targeting sports contracts, and expanded its Washington lobbying. The CFTC has recently asserted exclusive federal authority in a court brief.
