TL;DR
- Short-term holders transferred 29,400 BTC to exchanges at a loss, raising concern about pressure around key support levels.
- Long-term holders have realized 815,000 BTC in a month, yet analysts view this as ordinary profit distribution consistent with earlier bull phases.
- Despite volatility, leverage reduction, steady spot demand and historical whale patterns support a more constructive outlook for the broader market.
Short-term holders moved 29,400 BTC at a loss, renewing attention on the impact of Bitcoin Whales as the asset trades close to its 365-day moving average near $96,000.
Bitcoin Whales And Long-Term Holder Flows
Long-term investors have increased the pace of profit realization, rising from roughly 12,500 BTC per day earlier in the summer to about 26,500 BTC per day. This mirrors trends seen after all-time-high breakouts in prior cycles. Even wallets seven years or older that move more than 1,000 BTC per hour follow patterns documented in earlier bull markets. The flows appear orderly and recurring, pointing to scheduled distribution rather than abrupt exits.
Realized profits reached about $3.0 billion on November 7, comparable to levels observed in October. Net realized losses remain minimal, showing that holders are not capitulating. Analysts note that market bottoms typically coincide with substantial losses from investors, and current data does not reflect those signals. Instead, profit-taking aligns with maturing phases in which seasoned holders steadily lock in gains.
Key Support Levels Shape Market Outlook
Bitcoin trades around $96,000, a level that has acted as an anchor throughout recent upward phases. Holders who entered during the last six to twelve months have a cost basis near $94,000, a zone many analysts monitor. Additional correction areas appear around $87,000 and $74,000 based on valuation models that explain most price variation through on-chain activity. Losing the one-year moving average could extend weakness, though current conditions remain consistent with consolidation.
Derivatives Deleveraging And Market Reset Dynamics
Open interest in derivatives has declined 21% over the past three months, continuing the reset that began after the October 10 liquidation wave. Comparisons with September 2024 and April 2025 show similar drops of roughly 24% and 29%, reductions that previously preceded renewed upside. While spot demand contracted after October 8, it has shown early recovery. Observers highlight ongoing progress in prediction markets, institutional allocation and DeFi development, which continue to advance independently of short-term swings.
Despite sizeable transfers from short- and long-term holders, on-chain behavior aligns with historical bull-cycle patterns.
