TL;DR
- Bullish Metrics: Bitcoin’s derivatives structure, regime score, and short‑liquidation dominance highlight tactical upside with chart targets reaching $98K–$120K.
- Macro Pressure: Reports say the US shutdown, delayed inflation data, and Fed uncertainty keep buyers sidelined, with Bitcoin acting like a risk asset lacking conviction.
- Critical Support: Analysts emphasize that $84K remains the must‑hold level for any Santa rally, while BTC trades near $90K, still 30% below its October high amid mixed political and economic signals.
Bitcoin enters Christmas week split between bullish technical signals and macro‑driven selling pressure, creating a tense backdrop for traders hoping for a seasonal “Santa rally.” While BTC recently pushed toward $90,000 on improving derivatives metrics and chart patterns pointing to targets as high as $120,000, broader economic uncertainty continues to weigh on buyer conviction. Analysts warn that despite institutional inflows and renewed optimism, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as long as macro conditions remain unsettled.
#Bitcoin LTF plan
Still no change, looking for that Santa rally 🎅
Give us an early XMas present 🎁 & send it to 98-100K pls 🙏 $BTC#Crypto #BTC https://t.co/9Dwck8UBjN pic.twitter.com/NuCfUjxxrL
— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) December 22, 2025
Santa Rally Optimism Meets Macro Headwinds
On-chain data shows Bitcoin climbing 6.5% from recent lows, with analysts highlighting potential upside toward $98,000, $100,000, and even $120,000 based on bullish megaphone patterns and short‑liquidation dominance. However, news reports note a starkly different tone: Bitcoin is “limping into Christmas week,” with CF Benchmark’s Gabriel Selby warning that the US government shutdown and delayed inflation data left the Federal Reserve unable to chart a clear policy path. In this climate, buyers remain hesitant, and Bitcoin continues to behave like a risk asset struggling to attract sustained demand.
Derivatives Structure Gives Bulls Tactical Advantage
CryptoQuant’s regime score places BTC in a historically bullish zone, while short‑liquidation dominance has dropped to -11%, signaling forced closures that can fuel upward momentum. Analysts argue this structure provides “tactical” upside potential, especially if BTC maintains its recovery trajectory. Still, Selby cautions that without “several months of clean, uninterrupted inflation data,” uncertainty will continue to cap enthusiasm.
Key Support at $84,000 Remains Critical
Bitcoin has held above the $84,000 support since mid‑November, with nearly 1 million BTC acquired in the $84,000–$85,600 range. Analysts stress that defending this zone is essential for any push toward six‑figure targets. A breakdown would expose BTC to $80,000, where bears are already positioning.
Political Tailwinds and Trade‑War Drag
Reports note that under President Donald Trump, the crypto industry has benefited from regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. Yet Trump’s trade war and prolonged shutdown have also contributed to market pressure by delaying inflation data and complicating the Fed’s ability to justify deeper rate cuts. Until macro conditions stabilize, Selby says sellers remain “firmly in control” near $90,000, roughly 30% below Bitcoin’s October peak.
