The price of Bitcoin (BTC) might be making moves in lower time frames. However, zooming out in higher time frames, gains posted are small and nearly insignificant. In the daily chart, for instance, it is evident that sellers have the upper hand unless there is an impressive, high-volume breakout above $28k.
In that case, the leg up would have reversed losses of August 17, effectively signaling a shift of trend that may revive demand, lifting BTC to July 2023 highs.
Before then, aggressive traders might look to buy the breakout in lower time frames since Bitcoin is now trending above this week’s resistance level at around $26,300.
Bulls Optimistic But Will Prices Fall?
Overall, the broader cryptocurrency community is closely watching Bitcoin and the stance taken by the United States regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Although the hype surrounding the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) seems to have faded, the failure of the coin to resume the uptrend set in motion in late July still points to the coin’s fragility.
Technically, Bitcoin remains in an uptrend defined by the June to July 2023 uptrend. However, the triggers lifting BTC above $32k in a trend continuation formation stem primarily from fundamental factors.
Despite this outlook, one analyst on X is bearish, citing historical price performance before halving events. In all Septembers, before the network halves its miner reward, BTC tends to drop by roughly 18%. If that’s the case, he contends that the coin could drop to as low as $21.4k by the end of the month.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
From mid-July 2023, Bitcoin nearly reversed all gains posted from June.
The Fibonacci retracement tool, marking this trading range, shows that BTC fell slightly below the 78.6% level before stabilizing. As such, despite gains, BTC remains under pressure at this price point, and sellers have the upper hand.
Even so, the spike above $26.3k on September 7 might trigger demand, allowing aggressive bulls to buy on dips, targeting August 17 highs of around $28k. This outlook is valid, provided today’s bar is bullish and has rising volumes, keeping prices above $26.3k and, ideally, this week’s lows at around $25.2k.
Conservative bulls, on the other hand, might wait for a complete reversal of Aug. 17 losses, ideally at the back of increasing volumes. This development will cancel bears and set the ground for a possible recovery in a trend continuation formation where bulls will target July 2023 highs at $32k.
Any drop below $25k cancels this preview, setting the base for a retest of $21k or November 2022 lows in a bear-trend continuation formation.
Technical charts courtesy of Trading View.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice. If you wish to make a purchase or investment we recommend that you always conduct your research.
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