TL;DR:
- Analyst Jason Pizzino projects that the long-term low for BTC/USD might not occur until October 2026.
- The late-bottom thesis is based on risk-asset behavior and the 18-year economic cycle.
- CryptoQuant points to a drop in large investor deposits, suggesting easing selling pressure and a potential $99,000 target.
The Bitcoin market started the year with bullish euphoria and is ending with persistent caution. Trading volume is decreasing while investor attention fades. Now, analysts warn that the next BTC low could be much further away than expected.
Regarding the outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, analyst Jason Pizzino suggests that the long-term market inflection point might not materialize until October of that year. Pizzino indicated that it is “too early to know” whether current levels will mark the start of a new all-time high or simply a lower high before a major correction.
In the expert’s analysis, this projection of a late bottom is based on Bitcoin’s historical correlation with the behavior of other risk assets and its alignment with the 18-year economic cycle theory, which usually influences real estate and financial markets.
Pizzino said that for the market to reach its reversal zone, there must be a sustained decrease in BTC trading volume, similar to what preceded the current bull rally in late 2022 and early 2023. These periods of calm, he argues, are where “shock moves” are generated, as most market participants are not paying attention.
Decrease in Whale Deposits Drives $99,000 Projection
Technical analysts point to resistance marked by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the short term, but the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant offers a perspective on large investor activity. In their latest report, researchers observed a “calm before the volatility,” driven by a notable drop in exchange inflows from large-volume entities or “whales.”
The data is telling: the participation of large players in total deposits decreased from 47% in mid-November to 21% currently. Simultaneously, the average deposit shrank by 36%, moving from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC. This behavior indicates a reduction in selling pressure, as fewer large investors are moving their holdings to trading platforms.
Overall, predictions suggest that a sustained reduction in selling pressure could send the BTC/USD pair back to $99,000. This level corresponds to the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price, acting as a key resistance during bear markets. If this threshold is surpassed, the next resistances to watch would be $102K (one-year moving average) and $112K.
In summary, the Bitcoin next bottom 2026 analysis and the calmness in large deposits suggest that the market is consolidating for an eventual significant move, although the timing remains a factor of debate.
