TL;DR
- Standard Chartered indicates that this week could define a new Bitcoin floor at $100,000 due to a confluence of political and economic factors.
- The forecast is based on recent trade developments between the U.S. and China.
- Flows from gold ETFs and potential Fed rate cuts could favor BTC.
Standard Chartered warns that this week could mark a turning point for Bitcoin, with the $100,000 level emerging as a potential long-term floor.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Assets Research, believes that the combination of macroeconomic factors, capital flows, and diplomatic progress could shape the next phase of the market.
Easing Tensions Between Trump and Xi Jinping
The bank’s optimism is grounded in the latest developments between the U.S. and China. Kendrick highlights that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled progress, including a one-year suspension of China’s rare earth export controls and an increase in soybean purchases from the U.S. In return, Washington would drop its 100% tariff threat. Final details are expected to be confirmed after the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Korea, scheduled for later this week.
This shift in the trade relationship has had an immediate impact on the markets. The USD–CNH pair fell to year-to-date lows, reflecting a stronger yuan and renewed confidence in global trade stability. The news has reignited risk appetite, benefiting Bitcoin and increasing its correlation with cyclical assets. Additionally, the Bitcoin–gold ratio began rising again, approaching levels seen before the recent tariff tensions, signaling reduced investor fear.
The Path Toward Bitcoin Institutionalization
Kendrick also notes that U.S. gold ETFs lost over $2 billion last week, suggesting a shift in investor preference. If at least half of those flows moved into Bitcoin ETFs this week, BTC would regain attractiveness relative to traditional instruments.
The macroeconomic calendar is adding pressure to markets. On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut, while expectations regarding monetary policy independence remain. Simultaneously, five of the largest U.S. companies—Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon—will release earnings, totaling $15.2 trillion in market capitalization, adding further market volatility.
For Kendrick, a new all-time high could mark the end of the narrative centered on the halving cycle and establish Bitcoin as an asset backed by institutional flows. If the week unfolds favorably, BTC may never drop below $100,000 again, setting a strong floor for its long-term cycle
