Bitcoin Exchange Reserve metric hit a fresh all-time low near the end of 2025, with about 2.751 million BTC held on exchanges, even as Bitcoin traded around $86,500 after falling from above $126,000.
Under normal conditions, declining reserves imply holders are moving coins off exchanges into cold storage, reducing potential sell supply. This time, the note argues the signal is being diluted by weaker liquidity: the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse has softened, thinning order books and making price more sensitive to relatively small trades, while Binance inflows can offset outflows elsewhere and mute broader upside follow-through.
Next, desks will track whether inter-exchange flows and venue distribution improve alongside reserves staying low. A rebound in flow and depth would strengthen the accumulation narrative, while continued liquidity erosion could keep BTC vulnerable to pullbacks despite the scarcity signal.
Source: CryptoQuant.
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