TL;DR:
- Price rebounded to $70,000 fueled by ETF inflows, yet the derivatives market continues to flash signals of caution.
- The premium on “put” options remains at 14%, reflecting that professional traders are prioritizing downside protection.
- External factors, such as the Nvidia pullback and geopolitical tensions, are weighing on investor confidence.
Despite the pioneering cryptocurrency recently regaining ground, the Bitcoin derivatives and risk aversion market took center stage this Thursday. The leading asset managed to touch $70,000 again after recovering from local lows; however, futures and options traders remain reluctant to resume aggressive bullish positions.
Capital inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs totaled $764 million within 48 hours, serving as the vital support that stabilized market sentiment. Nevertheless, this institutional momentum was not enough to restore confidence in leveraged markets, where activity remains in a downward trend.
Currently, the annualized futures premium stands at a meager 2%, a figure well below the neutral 5% threshold. This lack of momentum suggests that, for whales, the path toward $75,000 is fraught with obstacles that are hindering a sustained short-term rally.
Uncertainty Factors and Macroeconomic Impact
The current distrust stems not only from internal crypto sector factors but also from a growing correlation with traditional markets and global tensions. The slump in Nvidia shares, despite reporting solid earnings, is a clear signal that investors are opting for a defensive stance across all sectors.
On the other hand, theories regarding price weakness due to past liquidations and concerns linked to quantum computing are gaining traction. Regarding the latter, developers are working on proposals such as BIP-360 to strengthen the network’s cryptography against future technological threats.
In summary, the options market shows a 14% premium on sell instruments (puts) compared to buy instruments (calls), confirming that fear continues to dominate the professional narrative. As long as macroeconomic uncertainty persists, Bitcoin will face the challenge of turning its current support into a solid foundation to reclaim historic resistance levels.
