TL;DR
- A fractal analysis projects a Bitcoin correction to $45,000 by October 2026.
- Bitcoin trades near $89,000, supported by a weak US dollar and record gold prices.
- Alternative indicators show bullish trends with ETF inflows and strong key support levels.
Bitcoin seeks to reconquer the $90,000 resistance zone while a trading expert suggests the asset will likely experience a correction in the coming months. The analysis presents conflicting scenarios about price direction in 2026.
TradingShot’s outlook, shared in a TradingView post on January 28, indicated that a possible drop to $45,000 can be derived from the view that Bitcoin’s current market structure increasingly mirrors the 2022 bear cycle.
If the rejection materializes, the historical fractal points to a multi-stage decline through successive supports, first near $70,000, then around $51,000 to $52,000, and ultimately toward $45,000, mirroring the proportional depth of the 2022 bear-market low.
By aligning the timing of the two cycles, the spacing between moving-average rejections and final lows suggests the sell-off could culminate in early October 2026, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin tracks a broader cyclical pattern rather than reacting to a single indicator.
The outlook arrives as Bitcoin climbed above $89,000 on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and soaring gold prices, which bolstered demand for alternative assets.
The dollar hovered near four-year lows, while gold hit record highs above $5,200 an ounce. However, Bitcoin remained largely rangebound, trading between $88,000 and $89,000, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Technical Indicators Support Bearish Projection
TradingShot’s Bitcoin prediction to $45,000 relies primarily on fractal pattern analysis from the 2022 bear market cycle, supported by specific moving average behaviors and momentum signals.
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages show rejection at the 100-day MA, with an upcoming test of the 200-day MA near $100,000 to $104,000 expected to act as failed resistance, mirroring 2022’s multi-month decline path.
The RSI at 45 points indicates neutral-to-weak momentum, confirming correction phase without bullish divergence, consistent with historical pre-drop readings.
Current distance from the 200-day SMA signals insufficient strength for reversal, aligning with fractal timing between MA tests and subsequent breakdowns through supports at $70,000 and $51,000 to $52,000.
Daily chart overlays show Bitcoin’s rally-rejection pattern matching 2022’s structure post-ATH, projecting staged drops to $45,000 by early October 2026 if resistance holds.
Alternative technical analyses counter TradingShot’s $45,000 Bitcoin drop prediction by highlighting bullish divergences, structural breakouts, and macro-aligned momentum that fractals often overlook.
Many analysts note Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA (around $68,000), a historically reliable long-term floor, with recent bounces forming higher lows—contrasting TradingShot’s failed 200-day MA resistance thesis. Golden cross formations between 50-day and 200-day MAs signal uptrends, not breakdowns.
RSI above 41 on weekly charts shows sustained bullish momentum with positive MACD crossovers, while spot ETF inflows exceeding $5 billion monthly provide volume-backed support, invalidating deep correction fractals amid institutional buying.
Post-halving cycles typically see mid-year consolidations before Q4 rallies. Key supports at $80,000 (Fib 0.382 retracement) and $89,000 (prior ATH base) align with Tom Lee’s ATH call by January end, prioritizing macro resilience over 2022 pattern repeats.
Traders watch volume patterns at current levels
Accumulation near $89,000 could signal preparation for an upward move, particularly if selling pressure continues to fade.
The $100,000 psychological barrier remains a key checkpoint. Breaking above it on sustained volume would validate bullish control and open the path to higher resistance zones. Failure to reclaim it keeps bears in control of medium-term price action.
Options markets price in heightened volatility around major dates, including Fed announcements and potential ETF decision deadlines. Implied volatility levels suggest traders expect wider price swings in coming weeks compared to recent consolidation.
The fractal analysis assumes pattern repetition without accounting for fundamental differences between 2022 and 2026 market conditions. Institutional adoption through ETFs, regulatory clarity improvements, and corporate treasury allocations create structural support absent in previous cycles.
Technical resistance at $92,000 to $95,000 represents the next battle zone for bulls. A daily close above this range on increasing volume would negate the bearish fractal thesis and target $105,000 to $110,000 based on Fibonacci extensions.
Volume analysis shows accumulation phases at current levels, with whale addresses adding holdings during recent consolidation. On-chain metrics indicate reduced exchange balances, suggesting buyers remove coins from trading platforms for long-term storage.
The conflicting analyses highlight uncertainty in Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. While fractals point to potential downside, momentum indicators and institutional flows suggest continued strength.
