TL;DR
- CME lost its leadership in bitcoin futures, and Binance returned to the top spot in open interest, driven by weaker institutional participation and the dominance of directional trading.
- The exchange now holds around 125,000 BTC in open interest versus CME’s 123,000 BTC, whose level fell sharply due to the compression of the basis trade.
- With spreads near 5%, arbitrage stopped attracting institutional capital and favored Binance, whose user base trades volatility and momentum.
CME Group has lost its leadership in the bitcoin futures market. Binance reclaimed first place in open interest, a sign that institutional dynamics have weakened while directional trading has regained prominence.
According to CoinGlass data, Binance now concentrates roughly 125,000 BTC in open interest, about $11.2 billion in notional value. CME sits just behind, with around 123,000 BTC, its lowest level since February 2024. At the beginning of the year, the Chicago-based regulated market exceeded 175,000 BTC. The decline was gradual and directly tied to the collapse in the profitability of the basis trade.
Binance vs CME
Throughout much of 2024 and early 2025, CME functioned as the epicenter of institutional arbitrage. Funds and trading desks bought spot bitcoin and sold futures to capture a premium that, at the peak of the post-election rally following Donald Trump’s victory, reached close to 15% on an annualized basis. That incentive supported elevated and stable open interest. Today, that spread has compressed to around 5%, according to Velo data. With tighter margins, institutional capital lost interest.
The Market Matures and Leadership Shifts
The adjustment does not stem from a single shock, but from a broader process of market maturation. As spot and futures prices converge, inefficiencies shrink. Arbitrage no longer justifies complex structures, balance sheet usage, and operational exposure. The result is an orderly pullback in institutional positioning on CME.
Binance, by contrast, maintained more stable open interest throughout the year. The exchange draws a user base more focused on directional trading and short-term speculation. That profile does not depend on the basis or structural spreads. It operates on volatility, momentum, and price expectations. When arbitrage opportunities narrow, that flow does not disappear.
The shift in leadership does not imply a full institutional exit from the futures market. It reflects a change in how the instrument is used. CME had dominated since November 2023, supported by positioning ahead of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. That phase is now over. The market has absorbed that catalyst and is operating with greater efficiency.
Arbitrage and Speculation
Today, there are fewer arbitrage opportunities and, therefore, less institutional interest in regulated futures. This gives greater weight to speculative trading. Binance is not winning through innovation, but because the current environment favors its user base. CME has not lost its structural relevance, but it has lost the dominant role it held when the basis paid more.
