TL;DR
- Bernstein now views prediction markets as ready for mainstream finance, supported by platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase integrating them into their product suites.
- The report signals that real capital, regulatory clarity and rising user participation are driving adoption at scale.
- Analysts also see prediction markets becoming a new revenue engine for major fintech and crypto firms, attracting both retail and institutional investors in the coming years.
Prediction markets are gaining momentum in traditional finance, following a new Bernstein report that frames them as a valid asset class rather than a niche experiment. The research highlights expanding liquidity, growing user participation and regulatory progress that are shifting these markets closer to wider financial inclusion. The United States is emerging as the most dynamic region for adoption, with large retail trading platforms accelerating exposure for everyday investors.
Robinhood recorded approximately $2.3 billion in prediction market volume during Q3 and $2.5 billion in October alone. Analysts estimate this could translate into around $300 million in annual revenue, marking one of the fastest-rising business lines for the company. Coinbase is preparing to introduce its own prediction market offering as part of a broader strategy to host crypto, tokenized assets, stablecoins and forecasting markets within a unified trading ecosystem designed for global users.
Growing Adoption Across Major Platforms
Bernstein also points to Kalshi and Polymarket as forces driving accessibility and regulatory progress, bridging traditional finance with crypto-settled prediction markets. The report adds that rising political uncertainty and unreliable online information are increasing demand for tools that provide market-priced probabilities. This gives investors objective data signals to shape more informed portfolio decisions.
The firm expects Robinhood and Coinbase to benefit significantly, supported by strong user engagement, liquidity depth and broader product expansion. Bernstein maintains outperform ratings on both firms and sees room for share price appreciation as adoption grows.
Expansion Beyond Crypto-Native Players
Other financial companies are joining the wave. Interactive Brokers launched ForecastEx in late 2024, anticipating sustained growth in the sector. Trump Media & Technology Group has also revealed plans to introduce a forecasting product soon. Current markets offer yes-or-no contracts on events such as inflation releases, central-bank decisions and major sports outcomes, giving traders simple ways to express macro views.
Although liquidity remains uneven and political-event markets still navigate regulatory challenges, the infrastructure supporting prediction markets is advancing rapidly.
