TL;DR
- Benjamin Cowen admitted his bearish Bitcoin outlook was wrong after BTC broke above $85,000.
- His previous cycle analysis assigned a 65% probability that Bitcoin’s low was still ahead, with $53,000 identified as an important downside level.
- The breakout triggered hundreds of millions of dollars in short liquidations, highlighting the pressure on traders positioned for another decline.
Benjamin Cowen has reversed his Bitcoin outlook after BTC broke above $85,000, invalidating the bearish scenario he had maintained throughout the summer. The founder of Into The Cryptoverse acknowledged on September 21 that his call was wrong as Bitcoin reached its highest level since January and forced heavily positioned short traders to exit.
Cowen’s earlier analysis relied heavily on historical Bitcoin cycle patterns. On September 8, he estimated a 65% probability that the cycle low was still ahead, compared with 35% that the bottom had already formed. He also monitored Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,000 as an important level that could have been tested if the market entered another deeper correction.
I was wrong
Not going to make excuses
I deserve to be dunked on
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) September 21, 2026
Bitcoin Breakout Forces Bearish Positions To Close
His thesis also incorporated patterns from previous midterm years, particularly 2014, 2018 and 2022. Cowen had considered October a potential period for a new cycle low, while some of his downside scenarios included a move toward $44,000. However, Bitcoin continued recovering instead of breaking lower, eventually pushing beyond the $80,000 area and then clearing $85,000.
The move created significant pressure on traders positioned for another decline. CoinGlass data showed $647.9 million in short liquidations over 24 hours, out of $746.6 million in total crypto liquidations. Open interest also increased 7.59% to $156 billion, indicating that traders continued entering the market even as bearish positions were forced out.
Cowen responded directly to the failed forecast, stating that he was wrong and would not make excuses. His reversal adds an important dimension to the current market because the breakout occurred before the October period he had identified as a potential bottom window.
Bitcoin Strength Changes The Market Setup
Bitcoin’s move above $85,000 also comes alongside stronger institutional demand. Recent reporting points to $433 million in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows on Friday, while Strategy purchased another $75.7 million worth of Bitcoin last week, bringing its holdings to approximately 846,000 BTC.
The combination of ETF demand, renewed derivatives activity and aggressive short liquidations gives Bitcoin additional momentum after weeks of recovery. Â
