TL;DR
- BTC’s rebound emerges from oversold conditions, but the price remains under key resistance.
- Analysts warn of a possible bearish flag pointing to a re-test in the $79,000 zone.
- Bitcoin’s divergence from tech stocks (MAG7) adds macro uncertainty to the market.
The recent shakeout in the Bitcoin price provided a brief breather to the market, exiting oversold conditions evident on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved out of the 30 zone towards neutral territory, and the MACD histogram has turned green for the first time since last week, signaling a decrease in the bearish trend.
However, analysts consider this technical rebound a fragile Bitcoin rally, as the price continues to trade below a key trendline resistance. While some traders are confident the market has found its bottom, others are actively preparing for a new downside slope before a truly strong and sustained demand returns.
There is division among the technical analysis community about the immediate direction. Market strategist Ali identified the current pattern as a potential bearish flag on the lower timeframes.
If this pattern is confirmed, the analyst argues that Bitcoin could re-test the $79,000 zone, a level that coincides with the next major liquidity pocket below recent lows. The analyst further warned of a growing on-chain selling risk, noting that the indicator has started to climb again, which historically is a red flag when investors aggressively start taking profits instead of absorbing dips.
In contrast, the view of trader Michaël van de Poppe is more constructive, highlighting that the Bitcoin rebound looks promising if the price manages to stabilize, consolidate, and then attack nearby resistance levels in the upcoming sessions. His focus is on securing a solid base before expecting any real bullish continuation.
Risk of a Drop and the Disconnection from Traditional Markets
A factor adding uncertainty and capturing market attention is Bitcoin’s growing divergence from the MAG7 tech stocks (the big AI-driven companies), which has widened significantly since the October 10th liquidation event. While these stocks continue to perform positively, Bitcoin sharply decoupled to the downside, suggesting that macroeconomic enthusiasm alone is not enough to drive cryptocurrencies up in the short term.
The outcome of this struggle—whether a decisive move up or a drop to $79,000—will depend on whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above short-term resistance, if on-chain selling pressure moderates, and if institutional flows return before year-end.
For now, the dominant theme remains volatility, with traders preparing for a tense fight between buyers defending the long-term structure and short-term speculators capitalizing on the uncertainty of the fragile Bitcoin rebound.
