TL;DR:
- Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin’s broken parabolic structure could precede an 80% drawdown, with a potential low near $25,240 from its all time high.
- BTC trades below $90,000 and fails to reclaim $93,000 as retail selling adds pressure, while analyst Captain Faibik argues a wedge breakout is approaching today.
- BoJ’s December 19 move is linked to 20% to 30% Bitcoin drops, and Michael Saylor’s firm holds 660,524 BTC at $58.5 billion.
Bitcoin is heading into a pivotal macro week under selling pressure, with the asset trading back below $90,000 even after Federal Reserve rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has seized on this backdrop to revive his long running warning that Bitcoin’s latest bull cycle has broken its parabolic structure, setting the stage, in his view, for the kind of deep drawdown that has followed similar breaks in previous market cycles.
Peter Brandt’s 80% crash scenario
Brandt argues that Bitcoin’s major advances have historically tracked parabolic uptrends that, once violated, precede severe corrections, and he now projects that a comparable breakdown could see BTC lose around 80% from its all time high and sink toward $25,240. He points to chart patterns that he says resemble prior cycle tops and notes that, in those past episodes, the parabolic violation marked the moment when downside momentum accelerated sharply.
Price action on spot markets appears to support part of the cautious tone, as Bitcoin continues to struggle below key resistance near $93,000 while repeated attempts by bulls to reclaim that level have been rejected. Over the last week, BTC has slipped under $90,000 and is now probing support around $88,000, with most of the selling pressure attributed to retail participants rather than large institutional holders, suggesting that short term sentiment among smaller traders remains fragile.
$BTC Breakout is only a matter of time.. 📈🔥
Bulls MUST Reclaim the $93k Resistance to fully regain Bullish momentum..
Bulls are still struggling to Reclaim the $93k Resistance but with every Retest, this Resistance is getting weaker..
Once the wedge breaks to the upside,… pic.twitter.com/vRDZdqpBYP
— Captain Faibik 🐺 (@CryptoFaibik) December 15, 2025
Despite that, not all analysts embrace Brandt’s bleak scenario, with market watcher Captain Faibik arguing that a breakout from the wedge pattern is “only a matter of time” if bulls can clear the $93,000 barrier. He contends that each failed retest gradually weakens resistance and potentially keeps the door open to renewed upside, still framing the consolidation as a pause in an unfinished bull trend rather than the beginning of a full scale bear market reversal.
The last 3 times Japan hiked rates, $BTC dumped 20%-30%.
BOJ is expected to do a rate hike again on 19th December.
Will this time be different? pic.twitter.com/2Glf0U9jQd
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 14, 2025
Macro events add uncertainty, as traders brace for November US CPI on December 18 and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on December 19. Forecasts put inflation near 3.1% year over year and 0.4% month over month, which could shape Fed cuts, while analysts recall drops of 20% to 30% after BoJ hikes. Long term, large holders like Michael Saylor’s firm, holding 660,524 BTC worth $58.5 billion, remain buyers as Brandt warns of a deeper correction.
