LEO, the utility token issued by Bitfinex, is trading at about a 60% premium to its implied fair value, and K33 says that gap may be the market pricing a breakthrough in the Bitfinex hack bitcoin case. A premium this large is being read as a forward signal, not a valuation accident. Research head Vetle Lunde notes the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, created in 2025 to consolidate seized and forfeited Bitcoin, totals about 328,372 BTC, yet 94,636 BTC tied to the 2016 hack remains frozen. He says the premium is the highest since 2022 seizure.
— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) February 25, 2026
LEO premium meets frozen Bitfinex BTC
LEO was launched in 2019 after separate capital losses, with supply reduced through ongoing buybacks and burns. Bitfinex has hardwired LEO’s value to recovered hack proceeds through a buy-and-burn commitment. Under its plan, 80% of any bitcoin recovered from the 2016 hack would be used to repurchase and burn LEO. Lunde estimates LEO’s market cap near $8 billion reflects roughly a 60% premium to that implied value. He cautions the gap could also be ordinary drift, since LEO is illiquid and concentrated, ranking in the bottom quartile of the top 100 by volume today globally.
U.S. authorities seized the 94,636 BTC in 2022 and courts have signaled the coins could be returned in kind rather than sold. The swing factor is the ancillary forfeiture process that decides who owns what. Lunde says the bitcoin remains frozen while proceedings allocate recoveries among claimants and Bitfinex, with third parties entitled to assert ownership claims. Some claimants argue they are direct victims, while Bitfinex argues certain claims arise from post-hack balance adjustments. If the coins are returned and buy-and-burn proceeds, about 75,000 BTC could reenter over 18 months, about 139 BTC per day.
Bitcoin is down about 50% from its high and trades about 25% below the entry price of bitcoin ETFs. ETF holders are absorbing losses without exiting en masse. Lunde says only 7.1% of ETF-held bitcoin has been sold since October. About 25% of ETF bitcoin is held by diversified institutions, with an average 0.56% allocation to IBIT. ETP balances are down 113,224 BTC from a 1,593,803 BTC peak, and 30-day outflows reached 54,190 BTC in mid-February. Nearly 93% remains as bitcoin nears the 200-week moving average around $58,500, and 2022-style systemic risks are not evident.
