TL;DR
- Jamie Coutts rejects claims that Strategy caused Bitcoin’s decline, arguing weak demand and tightening global liquidity better explain the market reversal across markets.
- Long-term holder selling peaked last year, while Coutts now believes an earlier risk-model warning may have marked the top of the entire cycle.
- Government debt, AI borrowing and private fundraising are absorbing capital, though tokenization and autonomous AI agents could create genuine demand for crypto’s next cycle.
Many investors have blamed Michael Saylor’s Strategy for Bitcoin’s latest decline, but Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts argues the evidence points elsewhere. Speaking on Michaël van de Poppe’s podcast, Coutts said the reversal reflected weak demand and tightening global liquidity rather than pressure from one corporate buyer. Bitcoin fell because the market lacked enough buyers to sustain higher prices, not because Strategy’s holdings or debt-funded purchases created the peak. The distinction matters today because it shifts attention from a visible company toward the less dramatic, but more powerful, forces shaping risk assets globally.
Everyone's blaming Michael Saylor for this drawdown. Jamie Coutts looked at the data and came to a different conclusion:
"#Bitcoin didn't top because of MicroStrategy."
Jamie Coutts (@Jamie1Coutts) is chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and one of the most rigorous liquidity… pic.twitter.com/Jeo8NfXehn
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 28, 2026
Liquidity pressures outweigh the Strategy narrative
Coutts also pointed to selling by long-term holders, which reportedly peaked during the third quarter of last year, a pattern often associated with later stages of a market cycle. His own risk model had warned of a possible top earlier than expected, although he initially interpreted the signal as suggesting a 30% to 40% correction. In hindsight, the warning may have identified the peak of the entire cycle. That possibility makes the current weakness more structural than a temporary reaction to Strategy, placing market demand and investor distribution at the center of Bitcoin’s unresolved outlook.
The analyst linked shrinking liquidity to competing demands for capital. Artificial intelligence companies have reduced share buybacks and increased borrowing, while major private-market fundraising and heavy U.S. government debt issuance have absorbed additional funds. Rising government debt is the largest structural pressure because it is expanding faster than available liquidity, according to Coutts. He expects policymakers will need to respond to that imbalance. Fresh money could return to markets this year or next, but conditions may deteriorate further before liquidity begins improving enough to support a durable recovery across Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Looking beyond the downturn, Coutts identified tokenization and autonomous AI agents as engines of the next crypto cycle. Tokenized assets could move traditional financial activity onchain, while AI agents may create demand for digital payments, decentralized infrastructure and blockchain services. A future rally supported by limited supply and genuine new demand would differ from earlier speculation-driven cycles. The argument leaves Bitcoin in an unusual position: Strategy may remain an influential buyer, but no company can replace broad liquidity. A lasting rebound depends on whether new use cases attract capital while global financial conditions begin expanding.
