TL;DR:
- Long-term holders hold 4 million BTC acquired between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly accumulated during 2025.
- The asset trades around $81,400, sitting near the average purchase price of spot ETFs in the United States ($81,500).
- The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate in the 3.75% to 4.00% target range following a 10-2 vote.
A report by Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin faces a heavy concentration of overhead supply near $85,000, where long-term investors are holding unrealized losses on approximately 4 million coins. This observation comes as the price of the benchmark cryptocurrency hovers around $81,400 on Thursday, October 29, following the interest rate pause enacted by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
$85K keeps turning $BTC back. Since January, Bitcoin has closed above it on only five days, never more than three in a row. It's a truly tough level to break. More in depth analysis in our latest Week on Chain report https://t.co/xy8lE3ilt3
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 28, 2026
According to on-chain metrics released by Glassnode, the long-term holder cohort—formally defined as wallets holding coins untouched for more than 155 days—acquired that 4 million BTC block within the price range of $85,000 to $118,000. At current market values, this stash represents a nominal value close to $326 billion.
More than 50% of the coins held by long-term holders are currently sitting below their original acquisition cost. The analytics firm noted in its report that the $84,000 to $85,000 range has capped price rebounds on four separate occasions throughout the year. Since January 2026, the BTC/USD pair has closed above $85,000 on only five trading days and has failed to maintain more than three consecutive daily closes above that threshold.
This technical pattern aligns with the positioning of institutional investment vehicles in the United States. The estimated average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) stands at $81,500 according to Glassnode, while calculations by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart peg the figure around $82,000. The data indicates that ETF holdings carried an aggregate unrealized loss near $2.63 billion as of the close on October 26.
Liquidity dynamics and macroeconomic backdrop
Last Wednesday, October 28, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain its benchmark policy rate within the 3.75% to 4.00% target range. The vote ended 10 to 2, with dissenting votes from Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, both of whom favored a 25-basis-point hike. In futures markets, pricing had previously implied a greater than 70% probability of monetary tightening heading into December.
HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun stated that elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to curb appetite for risk assets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hovered at 5.00% this Thursday, after touching an annual high of 5.37% on October 7.
Meanwhile, derivatives data shows a compression in funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures, reducing the profitability of cash-and-carry arbitrage. A report by Galaxy Research found that nine banks and hedge funds trimmed 68,000 BTC worth of exposure across spot ETFs due to narrowing rate spreads, while wealth management platforms and sovereign wealth funds logged net inflows.
In terms of capital flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $424 million in net inflows between Monday, October 26, and Wednesday, October 28, according to data compiled by SoSoValue, partially offsetting the $635 million in outflows reported on October 22.
According to statements from Sun, price pushes toward the $85,000 mark could trigger selling pressure from investors aiming to exit at breakeven. Nonetheless, the Glassnode report highlights that realized losses during recent drawdowns have shrunk considerably: while daily realized losses outpaced gains by $630 million during the August lows, the net realized loss recorded during the October 24 pullback dropped to $27 million.
Regarding the order book structure, Binance order book data tracked by the firm shows $42 million in bid depth between $78,000 and $79,000. Additionally, Glassnode places the average cost basis of recent buyers at $75,800.
The next major event on the macroeconomic calendar poised to influence financial markets will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 15–16, 2026.
